Udinese 3-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Udinese and Cremonese meet at Dacia Arena in Serie A, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Udinese's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Dacia Arena, Udinese have gone 1W 7D 2L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cremonese (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Cremonese have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Udinese register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Cremonese in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Udinese 0W, Cremonese 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Udinese — key trading statistics (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Cremonese — key trading statistics (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 60% versus Cremonese 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 56% | Cremonese 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 2.20 xG and Cremonese 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 1.240 / defence 1.185 | Cremonese attack 1.050 / defence 1.468. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.149. Cremonese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.468 — this is suppressing Udinese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 68 Udinese games / 30 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 55% | Draw 20% | Cremonese 25%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 1.82 | Draw 5.00 | Cremonese 4.00. The model has a clear lean to Udinese (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.20 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Udinese at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.63 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 100% | Cremonese 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Dacia Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 55% | Draw 20% | Cremonese 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 68% | xG Udinese 2.20 / Cremonese 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 1.240 / def 1.185 | Cremonese attack 1.050 / def 1.468 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Udinese (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Cremonese xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Cremonese kick off?
Udinese vs Cremonese kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Dacia Arena.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Cremonese?
Udinese 3 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Udinese vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Dacia Arena.
What competition is Udinese vs Cremonese part of?
Udinese vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 55% chance of winning, Cremonese a 25% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Udinese and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Cremonese?
Record (1 meetings): Udinese 0W | Draws 1 | Cremonese 0W.
What form are Udinese and Cremonese in?
Udinese (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Cremonese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Udinese's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.20. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (1.05x) against Udinese's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 68/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 3-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
55%
1.82
20%
4.91
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
3 – 1
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Udinese xG
Total xG
3.63
1.43
Cremonese xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.91
20%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.09
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
11%
9.04
Win to Nil
13%
7.58
3%
36.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Udinese and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Udinese and 1.43 for Cremonese, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Cremonese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Udinese come into this having played 68 games, going 20W 26D 22L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 1.29 PPG from 68 outings (23W 19D 26L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Udinese against 1.29 for Cremonese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Udinese's home form reads 10W 15D 8L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Cremonese have taken 1.21 points per game from 33 outings (10W 10D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Udinese are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.24 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 68 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Current Season
Cremonese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 20W 26D 22L in their last 68 games (1.26 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 23W 19D 26L in their last 68 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Cremonese away?
Udinese's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.36 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Udinese won 3-0 on 23 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Udinese
2
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Udinese have won 1, Cremonese have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Udinese 0-1 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Udinese, 64% for Cremonese — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Udinese) and 54% (Cremonese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Cremonese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Udinese's games and 64% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Udinese's matches and 54% of Cremonese's.
Do Udinese and Cremonese tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Udinese run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cremonese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Cremonese 3-0 at Dacia Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 2.20 xG and Cremonese 1.43 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cremonese landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 1.24 / defence 1.19 against Cremonese attack 1.05 / defence 1.47, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 55% | Draw 20% | Cremonese 25%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 56%, Cremonese 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Cremonese's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.26 PPG, Cremonese 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Udinese win broke the near-deadlock. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.