Torino 0-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Torino vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino plays host to Torino versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 8 April 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Torino have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Torino at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
AS Roma (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, AS Roma have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Torino, 1.60 for AS Roma — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Torino 0W, AS Roma 2W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Torino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 52% versus AS Roma 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torino 41% | AS Roma 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 1.06 xG and AS Roma 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 0.832 / defence 1.036 | AS Roma attack 0.956 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.177. Data: 66 Torino games / 66 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Torino 33% | Draw 29% | AS Roma 38%. Fair-value odds: Torino 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | AS Roma 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Torino 40% | AS Roma 70%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Apr 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 33% | Draw 29% | AS Roma 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Torino 1.06 / AS Roma 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 0.832 / def 1.036 | AS Roma attack 0.956 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Torino xG
Expected Goals
1.17
AS Roma xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torino vs AS Roma kick off?
Torino vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 8 April 2023 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What was the final score in Torino vs AS Roma?
Torino 0 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Torino vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino.
What competition is Torino vs AS Roma part of?
Torino vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 33% chance of winning, AS Roma a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torino vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Torino and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Torino vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and AS Roma?
Record (3 meetings): Torino 0W | Draws 1 | AS Roma 2W.
What form are Torino and AS Roma in?
Torino (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. AS Roma (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Torino's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (0.96x) against Torino's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
33%
3.04
29%
3.46
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Torino xG
Total xG
2.23
1.17
AS Roma xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
10%
9.75
13%
7.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Torino and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Torino and 1.17 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 66 outings, Torino have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 23W 19D 24L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
AS Roma's form line: 33W 14D 19L from 66 games, 1.71 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Torino against 1.71 for AS Roma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Torino have posted 1.50 PPG from 32 outings (13W 9D 10L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 13W 7D 12L from 32 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Torino are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.47 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Current Season
AS Roma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torino and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 23W 19D 24L in their last 66 games (1.33 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 33W 14D 19L in their last 66 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or AS Roma away?
Torino's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.50 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Torino or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Torino have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, AS Roma in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 0-3 on 20 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Torino have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Torino
2
Draws
7
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Torino have won 1, AS Roma have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Torino and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Torino 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Torino and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 47%, AS Roma 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Torino) and 53% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Torino keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Torino have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torino play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Torino's recent matches and 62% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Torino vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Torino's recent games and 53% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Torino and AS Roma tend to score early?
Torino have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Torino 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Torino 0-1 at Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Torino 1.06 xG and AS Roma 1.17 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Torino fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Torino attack 0.83 / defence 1.04 against AS Roma attack 0.96 / defence 1.03, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Torino 33% | Draw 29% | AS Roma 38%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Torino 41%, AS Roma 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Torino's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AS Roma's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Torino 1.33 PPG, AS Roma 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. Torino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. AS Roma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.