Spezia 1-1 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spezia at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Salernitana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Salernitana travel to Stadio Alberto Picco to take on Spezia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 April 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Spezia have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spezia have posted 1W 5D 4L at Stadio Alberto Picco — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Salernitana — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Salernitana have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Spezia 0.90 PPG, Salernitana 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Spezia have won 1, Salernitana 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Salernitana winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Spezia in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Salernitana in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 52% versus Salernitana 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 57% | Salernitana 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.30 xG and Salernitana 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.799 / defence 1.136 | Salernitana attack 0.870 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.146. Spezia's attack strength of 0.799 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Salernitana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.272 — this is suppressing Spezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 Spezia games / 65 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 40% | Draw 27% | Salernitana 32%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Salernitana 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spezia as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Spezia 50% | Salernitana 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 40% | Draw 27% | Salernitana 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Spezia 1.30 / Salernitana 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.799 / def 1.136 | Salernitana attack 0.870 / def 1.272 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Spezia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Salernitana xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Salernitana kick off?
Spezia vs Salernitana kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 2 April 2023 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Salernitana?
Spezia 1 - 1 Salernitana.
Where is Spezia vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Salernitana part of?
Spezia vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 40% chance of winning, Salernitana a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Spezia and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Salernitana?
Record (3 meetings): Spezia 1W | Draws 1 | Salernitana 1W.
What form are Spezia and Salernitana in?
Spezia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Salernitana (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Spezia's attack at 0.80x the league average against Salernitana's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Salernitana's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
40%
2.48
27%
3.66
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.43
1.13
Salernitana xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
13%
7.69
9%
11.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.9 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Spezia and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Spezia and 1.13 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Salernitana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Spezia have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 15W 15D 35L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Salernitana's form line: 13W 19D 33L from 65 games, 0.89 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-D. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spezia on 0.92 PPG, Salernitana on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Spezia have posted 1.06 PPG from 32 outings (8W 10D 14L).
On the road, Salernitana have gone 6W 9D 17L from 32 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Spezia are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 0.98 scored and 1.92 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Blended
Salernitana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 15W 15D 35L in their last 65 games (0.92 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 13W 19D 33L in their last 65 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Salernitana away?
Spezia's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.06 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Spezia have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Spezia's record when hosting Salernitana specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Spezia
2
Draws
1
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Salernitana?
From 6 meetings on record, Spezia have won 3, Salernitana have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2025, when Spezia 2-0 Salernitana.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Salernitana?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spezia see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 59%, Salernitana 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Spezia) and 56% (Salernitana). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Salernitana in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Salernitana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Spezia's games and 56% of Salernitana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spezia vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Spezia's matches and 56% of Salernitana's.
Do Spezia and Salernitana tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spezia and Salernitana share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 28, as Spezia and Salernitana drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.30 xG and Salernitana 1.13 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.80 / defence 1.14 against Salernitana attack 0.87 / defence 1.27, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 40% | Draw 27% | Salernitana 32%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 57%, Salernitana 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Salernitana's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 0.92 PPG, Salernitana 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Salernitana (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.