Sampdoria 1-1 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spezia at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Spezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sampdoria host Spezia at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie A, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 April 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Sampdoria — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sampdoria have posted 1W 2D 7L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Spezia have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Spezia's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Sampdoria) versus 0.80 (Spezia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Sampdoria have won 1, Spezia 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Spezia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sampdoria trading profile (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Spezia trading profile (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 47% versus Spezia 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 53% | Spezia 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.13 xG and Spezia 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.830 / defence 1.175 | Spezia attack 0.893 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.134. Data: 68 Sampdoria games / 68 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 34% | Draw 28% | Spezia 37%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Spezia 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spezia as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 30% | Spezia 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Spezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 34% | Draw 28% | Spezia 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Sampdoria 1.13 / Spezia 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.830 / def 1.175 | Spezia attack 0.893 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Spezia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Spezia xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Spezia kick off?
Sampdoria vs Spezia kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Spezia?
Sampdoria 1 - 1 Spezia.
Where is Sampdoria vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Spezia part of?
Sampdoria vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 34% chance of winning, Spezia a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sampdoria and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Spezia?
Record (3 meetings): Sampdoria 1W | Draws 0 | Spezia 2W.
What form are Sampdoria and Spezia in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Spezia (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sampdoria's attack at 0.83x the league average against Spezia's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
34%
2.92
28%
3.54
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.32
1.19
Spezia xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
10%
9.59
12%
8.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.7 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.19 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sampdoria come into this having played 68 games, going 13W 13D 42L for 0.76 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Spezia sit at 0.91 PPG from 68 outings (15W 17D 36L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sampdoria on 0.76 PPG, Spezia on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sampdoria's home form reads 7W 7D 19L across 33 games on their own ground, a 0.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Spezia have taken 0.82 points per game from 33 outings (7W 6D 20L).
The Goals Picture
Sampdoria are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 0.97 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Current Season
Spezia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Spezia in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 13W 13D 42L in their last 68 games (0.76 PPG), while Spezia have gone 15W 17D 36L in their last 68 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Spezia away?
Sampdoria's home record (0.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 0.85 PPG; Spezia away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sampdoria and Spezia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sampdoria's record when hosting Spezia specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sampdoria
3
Draws
4
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Spezia?
From 10 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 3, Spezia have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Sampdoria 1-0 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Spezia?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 54%, Spezia 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Sampdoria) and 58% (Spezia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sampdoria have failed to score in 36% of games; Spezia in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Spezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 48% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Sampdoria's matches and 58% of Spezia's.
Do Sampdoria and Spezia tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Spezia in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sampdoria and Spezia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 31, as Sampdoria and Spezia drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.13 xG and Spezia 1.19 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.83 / defence 1.18 against Spezia attack 0.89 / defence 1.11, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 34% | Draw 28% | Spezia 37%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 53%, Spezia 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Spezia's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 0.76 PPG, Spezia 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Spezia (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.