Sampdoria 2-3 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cremonese make the trip to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to face Sampdoria in Serie A, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 8 April 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Sampdoria (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Sampdoria's home record at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cremonese have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Cremonese have gone 0W 6D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Sampdoria against 0.60 for Cremonese. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sampdoria lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with Sampdoria winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Sampdoria half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 46% versus Cremonese 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 53% | Cremonese 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.33 xG and Cremonese 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.754 / defence 1.021 | Cremonese attack 0.898 / defence 1.409. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.154. Sampdoria's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cremonese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.409 — this is suppressing Sampdoria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Sampdoria games / 28 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 43% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 30%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Cremonese 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sampdoria as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sampdoria if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 20% | Cremonese 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Apr 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 43% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Sampdoria 1.33 / Cremonese 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.754 / def 1.021 | Cremonese attack 0.898 / def 1.409 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Cremonese xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Cremonese kick off?
Sampdoria vs Cremonese kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 8 April 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Cremonese?
Sampdoria 2 - 3 Cremonese.
Where is Sampdoria vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Cremonese part of?
Sampdoria vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 43% chance of winning, Cremonese a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sampdoria and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Cremonese?
Record (1 meetings): Sampdoria 1W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 0W.
What form are Sampdoria and Cremonese in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Cremonese (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sampdoria's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (0.90x) against Sampdoria's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 66/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
43%
2.34
27%
3.64
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.38
1.06
Cremonese xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
8%
12.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.06 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sampdoria's recent record stands at 13W 12D 41L from 66 games, a 0.77 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 21W 19D 26L across 66 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cremonese by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sampdoria heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sampdoria have managed 7W 7D 19L from 33 games — 0.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 9W 10D 14L across 33 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sampdoria are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.21 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Current Season
Cremonese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 13W 12D 41L in their last 66 games (0.77 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 21W 19D 26L in their last 66 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 0.85 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sampdoria have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sampdoria
3
Draws
2
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Cremonese?
From 6 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 1, Cremonese have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2025, when Sampdoria 0-0 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 52%, Cremonese 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Sampdoria) and 52% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria have failed to score in 39% of games; Cremonese in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Cremonese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Sampdoria's games and 61% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Sampdoria's recent games and 52% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Cremonese tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cremonese defy the odds to beat Sampdoria 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Sampdoria 2-3 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.33 xG and Cremonese 1.06 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Cremonese outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.75 / defence 1.02 against Cremonese attack 0.90 / defence 1.41, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 43% | Draw 27% | Cremonese 30%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Cremonese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 53%, Cremonese 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Cremonese's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.77. That form edge translated into the three points. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.