Napoli 1-0 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Napoli at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Napoli vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fiorentina make the trip to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona to face Napoli in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 May 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Napoli's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Napoli's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Fiorentina (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D D L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Fiorentina away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Napoli against 2.10 for Fiorentina. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Napoli lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Napoli — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Fiorentina — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 46% versus Fiorentina 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 52% | Fiorentina 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.45 xG and Fiorentina 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 1.086 / defence 0.967 | Fiorentina attack 1.200 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.160. Data: 71 Napoli games / 71 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Napoli 39% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 34%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Fiorentina 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Napoli are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Napoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Napoli 40% | Fiorentina 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 39% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Napoli 1.45 / Fiorentina 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 1.086 / def 0.967 | Fiorentina attack 1.200 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Napoli (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Fiorentina xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Napoli vs Fiorentina kick off?
Napoli vs Fiorentina kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Fiorentina?
Napoli 1 - 0 Fiorentina.
Where is Napoli vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Fiorentina part of?
Napoli vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 39% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Napoli and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Napoli vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Fiorentina?
Record (3 meetings): Napoli 1W | Draws 1 | Fiorentina 1W.
What form are Napoli and Fiorentina in?
Napoli (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Fiorentina (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Napoli's attack at 1.09x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (1.20x) against Napoli's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
39%
2.57
27%
3.74
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Napoli xG
Total xG
2.79
1.35
Fiorentina xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
10%
9.87
8%
12.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.9 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Napoli and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Napoli and 1.35 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Napoli come into this having played 71 games, going 49W 12D 10L for 2.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-D.
On the other side, Fiorentina sit at 1.52 PPG from 71 outings (31W 15D 25L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-D across their last five.
Napoli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Napoli's home form reads 22W 6D 7L across 35 games on their own ground, a 2.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Fiorentina have taken 1.14 points per game from 35 outings (11W 7D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Napoli are averaging 2.01 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.46 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Current Season
Fiorentina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Napoli and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 49W 12D 10L in their last 71 games (2.24 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 31W 15D 25L in their last 71 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or Fiorentina away?
Napoli's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 2.06 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Napoli or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Napoli have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won 0-3 on 4 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Napoli have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Napoli
2
Draws
2
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, Napoli have won 6, Fiorentina have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Napoli 2-1 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and Fiorentina?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 46%, Fiorentina 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Napoli) and 49% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Fiorentina in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Napoli play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Napoli's recent matches and 57% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Napoli vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Napoli's recent games and 49% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Napoli and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Napoli have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Napoli edge out Fiorentina 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Fiorentina 1-0 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.45 xG and Fiorentina 1.35 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fiorentina landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.09 / defence 0.97 against Fiorentina attack 1.20 / defence 1.04, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 39% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 34%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 52%, Fiorentina 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fiorentina's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.52. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Napoli (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.