Monza 1-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monza at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Monza vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Monza and AS Roma meet at U-Power Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 3 May 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Monza's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Monza at U-Power Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AS Roma have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
AS Roma away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Monza have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, AS Roma in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Monza lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2022, ended 0–3 with AS Roma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Monza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 51% versus AS Roma 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 51% | AS Roma 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.33 xG and AS Roma 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 0.966 / defence 1.176 | AS Roma attack 0.937 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.155. Data: 32 Monza games / 70 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 38% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 36%. Fair-value odds: Monza 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | AS Roma 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Monza as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monza if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Monza 60% | AS Roma 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 May 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 38% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Monza 1.33 / AS Roma 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 0.966 / def 1.176 | AS Roma attack 0.937 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Monza (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Monza xG
Expected Goals
1.27
AS Roma xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs AS Roma kick off?
Monza vs AS Roma kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 3 May 2023 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs AS Roma?
Monza 1 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Monza vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs AS Roma part of?
Monza vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 38% chance of winning, AS Roma a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Monza and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and AS Roma?
Record (1 meetings): Monza 0W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 1W.
What form are Monza and AS Roma in?
Monza (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. AS Roma (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Monza's attack at 0.97x the league average against AS Roma's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (0.94x) against Monza's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 32/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
38%
2.63
26%
3.79
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Monza xG
Total xG
2.60
1.27
AS Roma xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
11%
9.38
9%
10.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Monza and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Monza and 1.27 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Monza's recent record stands at 34W 15D 21L from 70 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 35W 15D 20L across 70 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Monza against 1.71 for AS Roma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Monza have managed 20W 7D 8L from 35 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Roma's away record stands at 15W 7D 13L across 35 trips, a 1.49 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Monza are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.47 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Current Season
AS Roma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 34W 15D 21L in their last 70 games (1.67 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 35W 15D 20L in their last 70 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or AS Roma away?
Monza's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 1.91 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.49 PPG.
Have Monza or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, AS Roma in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 4-0 on 24 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monza have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Monza
2
Draws
4
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and AS Roma?
From 6 meetings on record, Monza have won 0, AS Roma have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Monza and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2025, when AS Roma 4-0 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Monza and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 54%, AS Roma 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Monza) and 54% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Monza's games and 60% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monza vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Monza's recent games and 54% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and AS Roma tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monza and AS Roma share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 33, as Monza and AS Roma drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.33 xG and AS Roma 1.27 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.97 / defence 1.18 against AS Roma attack 0.94 / defence 1.06, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 38% | Draw 26% | AS Roma 36%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 51%, AS Roma 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Roma's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monza 1.67 PPG, AS Roma 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.