Frosinone vs Genoa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Frosinone vs Genoa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Genoa travel to Stadio Benito Stirpe to take on Frosinone. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 April 2027, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Frosinone stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Frosinone have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Frosinone's home record at Stadio Benito Stirpe: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
Across all Serie A games this season, Genoa have recorded 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Genoa away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Frosinone have the edge — a 2.00 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Frosinone have won 2, Genoa 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Frosinone trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Genoa trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 54% versus Genoa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 58% | Genoa 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.37 xG and Genoa 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.004 / defence 0.964 | Genoa attack 0.767 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.331. Data: 5 Frosinone games / 43 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 46% | Draw 27% | Genoa 27%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Genoa 3.70. Frosinone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Frosinone as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Frosinone offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 40% | Genoa 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Apr 2027, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 46% | Draw 27% | Genoa 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Frosinone 1.37 / Genoa 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.004 / def 0.964 | Genoa attack 0.767 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Genoa xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Genoa kick off?
Frosinone vs Genoa is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Sunday 11 April 2027 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
Where is Frosinone vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Genoa part of?
Frosinone vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 46% chance of winning, Genoa a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Frosinone and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Genoa?
Record (5 meetings): Frosinone 2W | Draws 2 | Genoa 1W.
What form are Frosinone and Genoa in?
Frosinone (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Genoa (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Frosinone's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Frosinone's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
46%
2.18
27%
3.66
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.36
0.98
Genoa xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
7%
14.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Frosinone and 0.98 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Frosinone's recent record stands at 26W 13D 4L from 43 games, a 2.12 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Frosinone, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Genoa, meanwhile, have gone 10W 12D 21L across 43 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Frosinone by 1.14 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Genoa heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Frosinone have managed 13W 5D 3L from 21 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Genoa's away record stands at 4W 7D 10L across 21 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Frosinone are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.02 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Early Season
Genoa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Genoa in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 26W 13D 4L in their last 43 games (2.12 PPG), while Genoa have gone 10W 12D 21L in their last 43 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Genoa away?
Frosinone's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 2.10 PPG; Genoa away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Genoa in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Frosinone's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Frosinone
2
Draws
1
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Genoa?
From 5 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 2, Genoa have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Genoa 1-1 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Genoa?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 48%, Genoa 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Frosinone) and 48% (Genoa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Genoa in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Frosinone's recent matches and 57% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Frosinone vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Frosinone's matches and 48% of Genoa's.
Do Frosinone and Genoa tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Genoa in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.