Fiorentina 1-1 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fiorentina (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fiorentina face Spezia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Spezia travel to Stadio Artemio Franchi to take on Fiorentina. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 April 2023, 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Fiorentina — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Fiorentina at Stadio Artemio Franchi this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Spezia have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Spezia have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On current form, Fiorentina have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Fiorentina have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while Spezia have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Fiorentina winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fiorentina and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Fiorentina trading profile (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Spezia trading profile (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 52% versus Spezia 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 52% | Spezia 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.40 xG and Spezia 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 0.985 / defence 1.001 | Spezia attack 0.868 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.154. Data: 66 Fiorentina games / 66 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 46% | Draw 27% | Spezia 27%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Spezia 3.70. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fiorentina as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fiorentina 70% | Spezia 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Spezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Apr 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 46% | Draw 27% | Spezia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Fiorentina 1.40 / Spezia 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 0.985 / def 1.001 | Spezia attack 0.868 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Spezia xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Spezia kick off?
Fiorentina vs Spezia kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 8 April 2023 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Spezia?
Fiorentina 1 - 1 Spezia.
Where is Fiorentina vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Spezia part of?
Fiorentina vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 46% chance of winning, Spezia a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Fiorentina and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Spezia?
Record (3 meetings): Fiorentina 3W | Draws 0 | Spezia 0W.
What form are Fiorentina and Spezia in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Spezia (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fiorentina's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Spezia's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
46%
2.17
27%
3.71
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.40
1.00
Spezia xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
7%
15.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.00 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 66 outings, Fiorentina have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 30W 12D 24L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Spezia's form line: 15W 16D 35L from 66 games, 0.92 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Fiorentina are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Spezia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fiorentina have posted 1.88 PPG from 32 outings (18W 6D 8L).
On the road, Spezia have gone 7W 5D 20L from 32 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fiorentina are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 0.98 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Current Season
Spezia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Spezia in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 30W 12D 24L in their last 66 games (1.55 PPG), while Spezia have gone 15W 16D 35L in their last 66 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Spezia away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.88 PPG; Spezia away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fiorentina and Spezia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2021, when Fiorentina won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fiorentina's record when hosting Spezia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Fiorentina
1
Draws
0
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Spezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 3, Spezia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2023, when Fiorentina 1-1 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Spezia?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 47%, Spezia 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Fiorentina) and 59% (Spezia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Spezia in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Spezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 47% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Fiorentina's matches and 59% of Spezia's.
Do Fiorentina and Spezia tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Spezia in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fiorentina and Spezia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 29, as Fiorentina and Spezia drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.40 xG and Spezia 1.00 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against Spezia attack 0.87 / defence 1.14, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 46% | Draw 27% | Spezia 27%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 52%, Spezia 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Spezia's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Spezia (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.