Fiorentina vs AS Roma – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours AS Roma (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fiorentina face AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 35 as Fiorentina welcome AS Roma to Stadio Artemio Franchi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 May 2027 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Fiorentina have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Fiorentina have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Fiorentina have gone 2W 6D 2L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
AS Roma — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, AS Roma have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. AS Roma's 2.80 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Fiorentina's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Fiorentina, 5 for AS Roma and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2026, ended 0–4 with AS Roma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Fiorentina in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
AS Roma in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 58% versus AS Roma 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 54% | AS Roma 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 0.81 xG and AS Roma 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 0.789 / defence 1.095 | AS Roma attack 1.292 / defence 0.752. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.331. Fiorentina's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. AS Roma's defence strength of 0.752 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. AS Roma have an above-average attack strength of 1.292 — the away xG of 1.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Fiorentina games / 43 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 16% | Draw 22% | AS Roma 63%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 6.25 | Draw 4.55 | AS Roma 1.59. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 40% | AS Roma 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2027, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 16% | Draw 22% | AS Roma 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 47% | xG Fiorentina 0.81 / AS Roma 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 0.789 / def 1.095 | AS Roma attack 1.292 / def 0.752 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.88
AS Roma xG
47%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs AS Roma kick off?
Fiorentina vs AS Roma is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Sunday 9 May 2027 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
Where is Fiorentina vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs AS Roma part of?
Fiorentina vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 16% chance of winning, AS Roma a 63% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Fiorentina and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and AS Roma?
Record (10 meetings): Fiorentina 3W | Draws 2 | AS Roma 5W.
What form are Fiorentina and AS Roma in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. AS Roma (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fiorentina's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.7%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
16%
6.44
22%
4.59
63%
1.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.0%
Away win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.69
1.88
AS Roma xG
6.44
16%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
1.59
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
15%
6.57
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
2%
42.28
28%
3.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 12.7 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.88 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Fiorentina have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 10W 16D 17L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Fiorentina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AS Roma's form line: 27W 5D 11L from 43 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, AS Roma are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fiorentina.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fiorentina have posted 1.05 PPG from 21 outings (4W 10D 7L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 12W 1D 8L from 21 away games — 1.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fiorentina are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.70 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Early Season
AS Roma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 10W 16D 17L in their last 43 games (1.07 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 27W 5D 11L in their last 43 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.05 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, AS Roma in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 24 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Fiorentina won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fiorentina's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fiorentina
2
Draws
5
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 3, AS Roma have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2026, when AS Roma 4-0 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 62%, AS Roma 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Fiorentina) and 43% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: AS Roma in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 38% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Fiorentina's recent games and 43% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fiorentina and AS Roma tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.