Empoli 2-1 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Empoli at 43%, yet in-form Salernitana provide a compelling counter-argument — this Empoli vs Salernitana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Salernitana travel to Stadio Carlo Castellani to take on Empoli. The game is scheduled for Monday 8 May 2023, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Empoli — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Empoli have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadio Carlo Castellani — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Empoli are significantly better at Stadio Carlo Castellani than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Salernitana stand at 2W 8D 0L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Salernitana's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Salernitana are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Empoli, 0 for Salernitana and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Empoli in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Salernitana in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 56% versus Salernitana 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 46% | Salernitana 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.36 xG and Salernitana 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.919 / defence 1.089 | Salernitana attack 0.867 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.151. Data: 71 Empoli games / 71 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 43% | Draw 28% | Salernitana 30%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Salernitana 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Empoli are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Salernitana (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Empoli 30% | Salernitana 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Monday 8 May 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 43% | Draw 28% | Salernitana 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Empoli 1.36 / Salernitana 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.919 / def 1.089 | Salernitana attack 0.867 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Empoli (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Salernitana xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Salernitana kick off?
Empoli vs Salernitana kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 8 May 2023 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Salernitana?
Empoli 2 - 1 Salernitana.
Where is Empoli vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Salernitana part of?
Empoli vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 43% chance of winning, Salernitana a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Empoli and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Salernitana?
Record (3 meetings): Empoli 1W | Draws 2 | Salernitana 0W.
What form are Empoli and Salernitana in?
Empoli (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Salernitana (all comps): 2W-8D-0L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Empoli's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Salernitana's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Salernitana's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
43%
2.34
28%
3.60
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.45
1.09
Salernitana xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
14%
6.94
8%
13.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Empoli and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Empoli and 1.09 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Salernitana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Empoli come into this having played 71 games, going 18W 22D 31L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Salernitana sit at 0.93 PPG from 71 outings (14W 24D 33L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Empoli on 1.07 PPG, Salernitana on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Empoli's home form reads 10W 9D 16L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Salernitana have taken 0.86 points per game from 35 outings (6W 12D 17L).
Goals in Recent Form
Empoli are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 1.04 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Current Season
Salernitana
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 18W 22D 31L in their last 71 games (1.07 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 14W 24D 33L in their last 71 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Salernitana away?
Empoli's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.11 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Empoli have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Empoli's record when hosting Salernitana specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Empoli
2
Draws
0
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Salernitana?
From 6 meetings on record, Empoli have won 4, Salernitana have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2024, when Salernitana 1-3 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Salernitana?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 63%, Salernitana 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Empoli) and 51% (Salernitana).
On the defensive side: Salernitana in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Salernitana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Empoli's games and 60% of Salernitana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Empoli's recent games and 51% of Salernitana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Salernitana tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Empoli edge out Salernitana 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Salernitana 2-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.36 xG and Salernitana 1.09 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.92 / defence 1.09 against Salernitana attack 0.87 / defence 1.16, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 43% | Draw 28% | Salernitana 30%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 46%, Salernitana 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Salernitana's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 1.07 PPG, Salernitana 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Empoli win broke the near-deadlock. Empoli (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.