Empoli 3-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Empoli vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 33 as Empoli welcome Bologna to Stadio Carlo Castellani. Kick-off is set for Thursday 4 May 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Empoli — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Empoli have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadio Carlo Castellani — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Empoli are significantly better at Stadio Carlo Castellani than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bologna have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bologna — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Empoli have won 2, Bologna 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with Empoli winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Empoli in-play and half-time data (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Bologna in-play and half-time data (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 56% versus Bologna 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 46% | Bologna 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.03 xG and Bologna 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.771 / defence 1.104 | Bologna attack 1.036 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.179. Empoli's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 70 Empoli games / 70 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 28% | Draw 28% | Bologna 44%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Bologna 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Empoli dominate the H2H record, yet Bologna are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 20% | Bologna 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Thursday 4 May 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 28% | Draw 28% | Bologna 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Empoli 1.03 / Bologna 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.771 / def 1.104 | Bologna attack 1.036 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Bologna (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Bologna xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Bologna kick off?
Empoli vs Bologna kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 4 May 2023 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Bologna?
Empoli 3 - 1 Bologna.
Where is Empoli vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Bologna part of?
Empoli vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 28% chance of winning, Bologna a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Empoli and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Bologna?
Record (3 meetings): Empoli 2W | Draws 1 | Bologna 0W.
What form are Empoli and Bologna in?
Empoli (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Bologna (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Empoli's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
28%
3.55
28%
3.55
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.38
1.35
Bologna xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
7%
13.66
16%
6.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Empoli and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Empoli and 1.35 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 70 outings, Empoli have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 17W 22D 31L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Bologna's form line: 24W 19D 27L from 70 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Empoli on 1.04 PPG, Bologna on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Empoli have posted 1.06 PPG from 34 outings (9W 9D 16L).
On the road, Bologna have gone 9W 8D 17L from 34 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Empoli are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.21 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Current Season
Bologna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Bologna in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 17W 22D 31L in their last 70 games (1.04 PPG), while Bologna have gone 24W 19D 27L in their last 70 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Bologna away?
Empoli's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.06 PPG; Bologna away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Empoli and Bologna runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Bologna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Empoli's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Empoli
3
Draws
2
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Bologna?
From 8 meetings on record, Empoli have won 3, Bologna have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Empoli 1-1 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Bologna?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 62%, Bologna 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Empoli) and 62% (Bologna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bologna in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Empoli's games and 59% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Empoli's matches and 62% of Bologna's.
Do Empoli and Bologna tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Bologna in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Empoli cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bologna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Bologna 3-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.03 xG and Bologna 1.35 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Empoli beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.77 / defence 1.10 against Bologna attack 1.04 / defence 1.05, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 28% | Draw 28% | Bologna 44%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Empoli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 46%, Bologna 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Bologna's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 1.04 PPG, Bologna 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Empoli win broke the near-deadlock. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line. Bologna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.