Cremonese 1-1 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Hellas Verona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hellas Verona make the trip to Stadio Giovanni Zini to face Cremonese in Serie A, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cremonese's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cremonese at Stadio Giovanni Zini this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Hellas Verona have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Hellas Verona's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Cremonese against 1.20 for Hellas Verona. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Cremonese 0W, Hellas Verona 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Jan 2023, ended 0–2 with Hellas Verona winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cremonese — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Hellas Verona — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cremonese 56% and Hellas Verona 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 51% | Hellas Verona 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.83 xG and Hellas Verona 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.725 / defence 1.317 | Hellas Verona attack 0.631 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.131. Cremonese's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Cremonese games / 69 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 30% | Draw 33% | Hellas Verona 36%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Hellas Verona 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Cremonese's lower xG of 0.83 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hellas Verona are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.77 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 40% | Hellas Verona 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 30% | Draw 33% | Hellas Verona 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Cremonese 0.83 / Hellas Verona 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.725 / def 1.317 | Hellas Verona attack 0.631 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Hellas Verona xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Cremonese vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 April 2023 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Hellas Verona?
Cremonese 1 - 1 Hellas Verona.
Where is Cremonese vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Hellas Verona part of?
Cremonese vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 30% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Cremonese and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Hellas Verona?
Record (1 meetings): Cremonese 0W | Draws 0 | Hellas Verona 1W.
What form are Cremonese and Hellas Verona in?
Cremonese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Hellas Verona (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cremonese's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Hellas Verona's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. Flip it around — Hellas Verona's attack (0.63x) against Cremonese's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 31/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
30%
3.29
33%
3.02
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Cremonese xG
Total xG
1.77
0.94
Hellas Verona xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.91
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
12%
8.43
16%
6.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.1 | 16.0 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.8%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Cremonese and 0.94 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cremonese come into this having played 69 games, going 23W 19D 27L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Hellas Verona sit at 1.14 PPG from 69 outings (20W 19D 30L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Cremonese against 1.14 for Hellas Verona. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cremonese's home form reads 13W 9D 12L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Hellas Verona have taken 0.85 points per game from 34 outings (5W 14D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cremonese are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 1.32 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona in 67%.
Last 69 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Current Season
Hellas Verona
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 23W 19D 27L in their last 69 games (1.28 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 20W 19D 30L in their last 69 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Hellas Verona away?
Cremonese's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.41 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cremonese have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cremonese
3
Draws
1
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Hellas Verona?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 0, Hellas Verona have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Cremonese 0-0 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Hellas Verona?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 53%, Hellas Verona 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cremonese) and 41% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Cremonese have failed to score in 32% of games; Hellas Verona in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Hellas Verona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Cremonese's games and 65% of Hellas Verona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cremonese vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cremonese's recent games and 41% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cremonese and Hellas Verona share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese and Hellas Verona finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.83 xG and Hellas Verona 0.94 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.72 / defence 1.32 against Hellas Verona attack 0.63 / defence 0.92, drawn from 31/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 30% | Draw 33% | Hellas Verona 36%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 51%, Hellas Verona 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.28 PPG, Hellas Verona 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.