Bologna vs Venezia – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bologna host Venezia at in Serie A, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 April 2027 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at , Bologna have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Venezia stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Venezia's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Bologna) versus 1.10 (Venezia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Bologna have won 2, Venezia 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with Bologna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bologna in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Venezia in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 44% versus Venezia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 42% | Venezia 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.61 xG and Venezia 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.884 / defence 1.023 | Venezia attack 0.861 / defence 1.330. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.331. Venezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.330 — this is suppressing Bologna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Bologna games / 5 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 47% | Draw 25% | Venezia 28%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Venezia 3.57. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 40% | Venezia 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Apr 2027, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 47% | Draw 25% | Venezia 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Bologna 1.61 / Venezia 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.884 / def 1.023 | Venezia attack 0.861 / def 1.330 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Bologna (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Venezia xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Venezia kick off?
Bologna vs Venezia is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Sunday 11 April 2027.
What competition is Bologna vs Venezia part of?
Bologna vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 47% chance of winning, Venezia a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Bologna and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Venezia?
Record (4 meetings): Bologna 2W | Draws 0 | Venezia 2W.
What form are Bologna and Venezia in?
Bologna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Venezia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bologna's attack at 0.88x the league average against Venezia's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
47%
2.11
25%
4.05
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.78
1.17
Venezia xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
15%
6.82
6%
17.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.7 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Bologna and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Bologna and 1.17 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bologna come into this having played 43 games, going 16W 10D 17L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 1.91 PPG from 43 outings (24W 10D 9L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Venezia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Bologna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bologna's home form reads 5W 6D 10L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 1.48 points per game from 21 outings (7W 10D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.91 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Venezia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bologna are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.88 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Venezia in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Early Season
Venezia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Venezia in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 16W 10D 17L in their last 43 games (1.35 PPG), while Venezia have gone 24W 10D 9L in their last 43 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Venezia away?
Venezia's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.00 PPG; Venezia away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Bologna or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Venezia in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bologna and Venezia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bologna go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Nov 2024, when Bologna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bologna's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Bologna
0
Draws
2
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Venezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Bologna have won 2, Venezia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Venezia 0-1 Bologna.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bologna see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 38%, Venezia 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Bologna) and 52% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Bologna have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Bologna's recent matches and 67% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Bologna's recent games and 52% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Venezia tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Venezia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.