Bologna 3-0 Udinese – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bologna at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Udinese make the trip to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to face Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 April 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's home record at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
Udinese (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Udinese have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Bologna. A 0.50 PPG lead over Udinese (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bologna lead 1W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2023, ended 2–1 with Bologna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bologna — key trading statistics (65 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Udinese — key trading statistics (65 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 52% versus Udinese 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 51% | Udinese 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 0.92 xG and Udinese 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.861 / defence 0.754 | Udinese attack 0.829 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.152. Bologna's defence rating of 0.754 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 Bologna games / 65 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 38% | Draw 35% | Udinese 27%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.63 | Draw 2.86 | Udinese 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.64. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.64 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Udinese's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 23% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 31% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 40% | Udinese 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Apr 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 38% | Draw 35% | Udinese 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 31% | xG Bologna 0.92 / Udinese 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.861 / def 0.754 | Udinese attack 0.829 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Bologna (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Udinese xG
31%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Udinese kick off?
Bologna vs Udinese kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 2 April 2023 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Udinese?
Bologna 3 - 0 Udinese.
Where is Bologna vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Udinese part of?
Bologna vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 38% chance of winning, Udinese a 27% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Bologna and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Udinese?
Record (3 meetings): Bologna 1W | Draws 2 | Udinese 0W.
What form are Bologna and Udinese in?
Bologna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Udinese (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bologna's attack rating (0.86) and Udinese's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (0.83x) against Bologna's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 21.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.2%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
38%
2.61
35%
2.90
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Bologna xG
Total xG
1.64
0.72
Udinese xG
2.61
38%
Home win
2.90
35%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.24
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
11%
9.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.4 | 14.0 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 12.9 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.0%.
How many goals are Bologna and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Bologna and 0.72 for Udinese, a combined total of 1.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 65 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 22W 17D 26L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Udinese's form line: 20W 25D 20L from 65 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-W. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Bologna against 1.31 for Udinese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bologna have posted 1.55 PPG from 33 outings (14W 9D 10L).
On the road, Udinese have gone 10W 11D 12L from 33 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bologna are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.51 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese in 62%.
Last 65 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Udinese in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 22W 17D 26L in their last 65 games (1.28 PPG), while Udinese have gone 20W 25D 20L in their last 65 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Udinese away?
Bologna's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.55 PPG; Udinese away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bologna have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won 3-0 on 2 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bologna
5
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 4, Udinese have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Bologna 1-0 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Udinese?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bologna see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 46%, Udinese 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Bologna) and 52% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Udinese in 30%; Bologna have failed to score in 27% of games; Udinese in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Bologna's recent matches and 52% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Bologna's recent games and 52% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Udinese tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Udinese in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bologna run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Udinese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Udinese 3-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 0.92 xG and Udinese 0.72 xG, a combined 1.64. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bologna beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.86 / defence 0.75 against Udinese attack 0.83 / defence 0.84, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 38% | Draw 35% | Udinese 27%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 51%, Udinese 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (65 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Udinese's trading profile (65 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.28 PPG, Udinese 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.