Bologna vs Parma – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Parma travel to to take on Bologna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 May 2027, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna's home record at : 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Parma have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Parma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Parma have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bologna 1.00 PPG, Parma 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Bologna, 2 for Parma and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with Parma winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Parma trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 44% versus Parma 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bologna 42% | Parma 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.27 xG and Parma 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.887 / defence 1.022 | Parma attack 0.795 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.331. Data: 43 Bologna games / 43 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 41% | Draw 28% | Parma 32%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Parma 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 40% | Parma 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Parma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 30 May 2027, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 41% | Draw 28% | Parma 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Bologna 1.27 / Parma 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.887 / def 1.022 | Parma attack 0.795 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Bologna (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Parma xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Parma kick off?
Bologna vs Parma is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Sunday 30 May 2027.
What competition is Bologna vs Parma part of?
Bologna vs Parma is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 41% chance of winning, Parma a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bologna and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Parma?
Record (4 meetings): Bologna 1W | Draws 1 | Parma 2W.
What form are Bologna and Parma in?
Bologna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Parma (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bologna's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
41%
2.46
28%
3.59
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.35
1.08
Parma xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
14%
7.27
9%
11.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Bologna and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Bologna and 1.08 for Parma, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 16W 10D 17L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Parma's form line: 12W 13D 18L from 43 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.35 PPG, Parma on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bologna have posted 1.00 PPG from 21 outings (5W 6D 10L).
On the road, Parma have gone 6W 6D 9L from 21 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 0.74 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Early Season
Parma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Parma in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 16W 10D 17L in their last 43 games (1.35 PPG), while Parma have gone 12W 13D 18L in their last 43 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.00 PPG; Parma away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Bologna or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Parma in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bologna's record when hosting Parma specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Bologna
1
Draws
2
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Parma?
From 4 meetings on record, Bologna have won 1, Parma have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Bologna 0-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Parma see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 38%, Parma 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Bologna and 29% for Parma.
On the defensive side: Parma in 38%; Bologna have failed to score in 43% of games; Parma in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Bologna's recent matches and 33% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Bologna's recent games and 29% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.