Bologna 1-1 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Juventus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bologna and Juventus meet at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 April 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Bologna (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Bologna's home record at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
Juventus's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Juventus have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Bologna, 2 for Juventus and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 0–3 with Juventus winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bologna — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Juventus — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 52% versus Juventus 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 51% | Juventus 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.09 xG and Juventus 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.986 / defence 0.737 | Juventus attack 0.922 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.126. Bologna's defence rating of 0.737 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 69 Bologna games / 69 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 43% | Draw 32% | Juventus 25%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Juventus 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Juventus's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 40% | Juventus 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Apr 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 43% | Draw 32% | Juventus 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 35% | xG Bologna 1.09 / Juventus 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.986 / def 0.737 | Juventus attack 0.922 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Bologna (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Juventus xG
35%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Juventus kick off?
Bologna vs Juventus kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 30 April 2023 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Juventus?
Bologna 1 - 1 Juventus.
Where is Bologna vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Juventus part of?
Bologna vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 43% chance of winning, Juventus a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Bologna and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Juventus?
Record (3 meetings): Bologna 0W | Draws 1 | Juventus 2W.
What form are Bologna and Juventus in?
Bologna (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Juventus (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bologna's attack rating (0.99) and Juventus's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juventus's attack (0.92x) against Bologna's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
43%
2.33
32%
3.15
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Bologna xG
Total xG
1.85
0.76
Juventus xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.82
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
20%
5.01
9%
11.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 12.0 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.3 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Bologna and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Bologna and 0.76 for Juventus, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 69 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 24W 18D 27L record — D-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Juventus's form line: 38W 15D 16L from 69 games, 1.87 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Juventus are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bologna.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bologna have posted 1.53 PPG from 34 outings (14W 10D 10L).
On the road, Juventus have gone 17W 7D 10L from 34 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Bologna are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.51 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Current Season
Juventus
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Juventus in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 24W 18D 27L in their last 69 games (1.30 PPG), while Juventus have gone 38W 15D 16L in their last 69 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Juventus away?
Juventus's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.53 PPG; Juventus away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Bologna or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Juventus in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Juventus have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventus won 3-0 on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Juventus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Bologna
6
Draws
4
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Juventus?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 0, Juventus have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Juventus 2-0 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bologna see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 44%, Juventus 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Bologna) and 38% (Juventus).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Juventus in 38%; Bologna have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Juventus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Bologna's recent matches and 47% of Juventus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Bologna's recent games and 38% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Juventus tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Juventus in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna and Juventus share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 32, as Bologna and Juventus drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.09 xG and Juventus 0.76 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.99 / defence 0.74 against Juventus attack 0.92 / defence 0.87, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 43% | Draw 32% | Juventus 25%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 51%, Juventus 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Juventus's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.