AS Roma 3-0 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Udinese travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on AS Roma. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 April 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
AS Roma — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Stadio Olimpico, AS Roma have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Udinese have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
AS Roma are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. AS Roma's 20% rate and Udinese's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for AS Roma, 1 for Udinese and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 0–4 with Udinese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
AS Roma trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Udinese trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 46% versus Udinese 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 45% | Udinese 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.53 xG and Udinese 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.226 / defence 0.814 | Udinese attack 0.776 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.158. Data: 67 AS Roma games / 67 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 57% | Draw 26% | Udinese 18%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Udinese 5.56. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 20% | Udinese 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 57% | Draw 26% | Udinese 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 41% | xG AS Roma 1.53 / Udinese 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.226 / def 0.814 | Udinese attack 0.776 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Udinese xG
41%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Udinese kick off?
AS Roma vs Udinese kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Udinese?
AS Roma 3 - 0 Udinese.
Where is AS Roma vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Udinese part of?
AS Roma vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 57% chance of winning, Udinese a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both AS Roma and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Udinese?
Record (3 meetings): AS Roma 1W | Draws 1 | Udinese 1W.
What form are AS Roma and Udinese in?
AS Roma (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Udinese (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.23) and Udinese's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 2-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
57%
1.77
26%
3.89
18%
5.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.27
0.73
Udinese xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
5.63
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
27%
3.68
4%
26.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 11.6 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.73 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Udinese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Roma's recent record stands at 34W 14D 19L from 67 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Udinese, meanwhile, have gone 20W 26D 21L across 67 games — 1.28 PPG, with D-W-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours AS Roma by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Udinese heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AS Roma have managed 19W 7D 7L from 33 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Udinese's away record stands at 9W 11D 13L across 33 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AS Roma are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.49 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese in 61%.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Current Season
Udinese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Udinese in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 34W 14D 19L in their last 67 games (1.73 PPG), while Udinese have gone 20W 26D 21L in their last 67 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Udinese away?
AS Roma's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.94 PPG; Udinese away: 1.15 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Udinese in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AS Roma and Udinese runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Sep 2022, when Udinese won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AS Roma's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
AS Roma
1
Draws
2
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 7, Udinese have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Udinese 1-0 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Udinese?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 33%, Udinese 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (AS Roma) and 54% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Udinese in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of AS Roma's recent matches and 52% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of AS Roma's recent games and 54% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Udinese tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Udinese in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AS Roma run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Udinese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Udinese 3-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.53 xG and Udinese 0.73 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.23 / defence 0.81 against Udinese attack 0.78 / defence 1.04, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 57% | Draw 26% | Udinese 18%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 45%, Udinese 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Udinese's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.