Waterford 1-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waterford vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 26 as Waterford welcome Dundalk to Waterford Regional Sports Centre. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 September 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Waterford have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waterford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waterford's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Waterford Regional Sports Centre this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Waterford Regional Sports Centre this season.
Dundalk — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dundalk away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Waterford have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Waterford, 0 for Dundalk and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Jun 2021, ended 3–1 with Waterford winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Waterford in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Dundalk in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 44% versus Dundalk 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 61% | Dundalk 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.23 xG and Dundalk 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.953 / defence 1.364 | Dundalk attack 0.837 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.035 / away 1.211. Dundalk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing Waterford's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Waterford games / 23 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 33% | Draw 26% | Dundalk 41%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Dundalk 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Waterford (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dundalk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Waterford 40% | Dundalk 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Waterford Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 3 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 33% | Draw 26% | Dundalk 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Waterford 1.23 / Dundalk 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.953 / def 1.364 | Dundalk attack 0.837 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.035 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Dundalk xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs Dundalk kick off?
Waterford vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 3 September 2021 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Dundalk?
Waterford 1 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is Waterford vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Dundalk part of?
Waterford vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 33% chance of winning, Dundalk a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Waterford and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Dundalk?
Record (1 meetings): Waterford 1W | Draws 0 | Dundalk 0W.
What form are Waterford and Dundalk in?
Waterford (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Dundalk (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Waterford's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Dundalk's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
33%
3.01
26%
3.81
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.61
1.38
Dundalk xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
8%
11.99
12%
8.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.2 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Waterford and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Waterford and 1.38 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Waterford's recent record stands at 9W 1D 13L from 23 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Waterford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dundalk, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 10L across 23 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Dundalk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waterford on 1.22 PPG, Dundalk on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Waterford have managed 4W 1D 6L from 11 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dundalk's away record stands at 3W 4D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Waterford are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.17 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk in 70%.
Last 23 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Blended
Dundalk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waterford and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 9W 1D 13L in their last 23 games (1.22 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 7W 6D 10L in their last 23 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or Dundalk away?
Waterford's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 1.18 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Mar 2026, when Dundalk won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waterford's record when hosting Dundalk specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Waterford
3
Draws
2
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 5, Dundalk have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Dundalk 2-3 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Dundalk?
Waterford have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waterford 36%, Dundalk 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Waterford) and 46% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Waterford have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waterford play Dundalk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Waterford's recent matches and 64% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waterford vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Waterford's recent games and 46% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waterford and Dundalk tend to score early?
Waterford have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waterford and Dundalk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 26, as Waterford and Dundalk drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.23 xG and Dundalk 1.38 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.95 / defence 1.36 against Dundalk attack 0.84 / defence 1.24, drawn from 25/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 33% | Draw 26% | Dundalk 41%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 61%, Dundalk 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waterford's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Dundalk's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waterford 1.22 PPG, Dundalk 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Waterford (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.