Waterford 0-1 Derry City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Derry City at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waterford vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Waterford host Derry City at Waterford Regional Sports Centre in Premier Division, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 21 May 2021 at 17:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 0.64 xG and Derry City 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.663 / defence 1.689 | Derry City attack 0.745 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 0.842 / away 1.302. Waterford's attack strength of 0.663 is below the league average — the 0.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 Waterford games / 11 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 12% | Draw 28% | Derry City 60%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 8.33 | Draw 3.57 | Derry City 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Derry City (60%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derry City are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Waterford Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 21 May 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 12% | Draw 28% | Derry City 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 40% | xG Waterford 0.64 / Derry City 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.663 / def 1.689 | Derry City attack 0.745 / def 1.146 | league avg home 0.842 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Derry City (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.64
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Derry City xG
40%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs Derry City kick off?
Waterford vs Derry City kicked off at 17:45 on Friday 21 May 2021 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Derry City?
Waterford 0 - 1 Derry City.
Where is Waterford vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Derry City part of?
Waterford vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 12% chance of winning, Derry City a 60% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Waterford and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Waterford and Derry City in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Waterford's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Derry City's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.64. The same calculation in reverse, Derry City's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.4%. Close behind: 0-2 (13.7%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
12%
8.15
28%
3.55
60%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.7%
Away win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.64
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.28
1.64
Derry City xG
8.15
12%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
1.68
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
19%
5.14
53%
1.90
Win to Nil
2%
41.93
31%
3.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 16.8 | 13.7 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Waterford and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 0.64 expected goals for Waterford and 1.64 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Derry City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Pre-Season
Derry City
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waterford and Derry City runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jul 2025, when Derry City won 7-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waterford's record when hosting Derry City specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Waterford
1
Draws
6
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 3, Derry City have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Derry City 2-4 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Derry City edge out Waterford 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Waterford 0-1 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 0.64 xG and Derry City 1.64 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.66 / defence 1.69 against Derry City attack 0.74 / defence 1.15, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 12% | Draw 28% | Derry City 60%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.