Waterford 1-0 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waterford vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 23 as Waterford welcome Bohemians to Waterford Regional Sports Centre. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 August 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Waterford have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waterford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waterford's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Waterford Regional Sports Centre this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Waterford Regional Sports Centre this season.
Bohemians — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 4L across 9 road games this term (1.22 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.22 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Waterford) versus 2.00 (Bohemians). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Waterford trading profile (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Bohemians trading profile (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 40% versus Bohemians 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 60% | Bohemians 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 0.93 xG and Bohemians 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.696 / defence 1.517 | Bohemians attack 0.740 / defence 1.264. League average goals — home 1.057 / away 1.211. Waterford's attack strength of 0.696 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bohemians bring a strong defensive rating of 1.264 — this is suppressing Waterford's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Waterford games / 20 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 26% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 47%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Bohemians 2.13. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Waterford 40% | Bohemians 44% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Waterford Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 26% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Waterford 0.93 / Bohemians 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.696 / def 1.517 | Bohemians attack 0.740 / def 1.264 | league avg home 1.057 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Bohemians xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs Bohemians kick off?
Waterford vs Bohemians kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Bohemians?
Waterford 1 - 0 Bohemians.
Where is Waterford vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Bohemians part of?
Waterford vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 26% chance of winning, Bohemians a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Waterford and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Waterford and Bohemians in?
Waterford (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Bohemians (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Waterford's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
26%
3.90
28%
3.62
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.29
1.36
Bohemians xG
3.90
26%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
7%
15.19
18%
5.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 13.8 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Waterford and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Waterford and 1.36 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 20 outings, Waterford have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 7W 1D 12L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Waterford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians's form line: 9W 4D 7L from 20 games, 1.55 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Bohemians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bohemians are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waterford.
Venue Form
On home soil, Waterford have posted 0.78 PPG from 9 outings (2W 1D 6L).
On the road, Bohemians have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Waterford are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.70 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Bohemians in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Blended
Bohemians
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waterford and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 7W 1D 12L in their last 20 games (1.10 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 9W 4D 7L in their last 20 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or Bohemians away?
Bohemians's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 0.78 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Waterford or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waterford have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Bohemians in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Mar 2025, when Bohemians won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waterford's record when hosting Bohemians specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Waterford
2
Draws
3
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 5, Bohemians have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Bohemians 1-1 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Bohemians?
Waterford have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waterford 33%, Bohemians 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Waterford) and 33% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Bohemians in 33%; Waterford have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waterford play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Waterford's recent matches and 44% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waterford vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Waterford's recent games and 33% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waterford and Bohemians tend to score early?
Waterford have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Waterford defy the odds to beat Bohemians 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford beat Bohemians 1-0 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 0.93 xG and Bohemians 1.36 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.70 / defence 1.52 against Bohemians attack 0.74 / defence 1.26, drawn from 22/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 26% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 47%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Waterford win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 60%, Bohemians 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waterford's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Bohemians's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bohemians arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Waterford winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Waterford (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.