Waterford 0-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bohemians at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waterford vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 5 as Waterford welcome Bohemians to Waterford Regional Sports Centre. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 April 2021 at 17:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 0.80 xG and Bohemians 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.990 / defence 1.252 | Bohemians attack 0.699 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 0.777 / away 1.255. Data: 4 Waterford games / 4 Bohemians games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Waterford 26% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 42%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Bohemians 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.90 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (4 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Waterford Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 16 Apr 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 26% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Waterford 0.80 / Bohemians 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.990 / def 1.252 | Bohemians attack 0.699 / def 1.035 | league avg home 0.777 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Bohemians xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs Bohemians kick off?
Waterford vs Bohemians kicked off at 17:45 on Friday 16 April 2021 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Bohemians?
Waterford 0 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is Waterford vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Bohemians part of?
Waterford vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 26% chance of winning, Bohemians a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Waterford and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Waterford and Bohemians in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Waterford's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (4/4 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
26%
3.81
31%
3.19
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Waterford xG
Total xG
1.90
1.10
Bohemians xG
3.81
26%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
9%
11.43
19%
5.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 16.5 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Waterford and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Waterford and 1.10 for Bohemians, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Pre-Season
Bohemians
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Mar 2025, when Bohemians won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waterford's record when hosting Bohemians specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Waterford
2
Draws
3
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 5, Bohemians have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Bohemians 1-1 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Bohemians?
Waterford have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians edge out Waterford 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Waterford 0-1 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 0.80 xG and Bohemians 1.10 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.99 / defence 1.25 against Bohemians attack 0.70 / defence 1.03, drawn from 4/4 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 26% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 42%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.