St Patrick's Athl. 2-1 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford meet at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 August 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
St Patrick's Athl.'s overall Premier Division record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Richmond Park, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Richmond Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — St Patrick's Athl. are significantly better at Richmond Park than their overall form suggests.
Waterford have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Waterford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waterford's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
St Patrick's Athl. — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 90% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Waterford — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 61% versus Waterford 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 48% | Waterford 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.66 xG and Waterford 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.237 / defence 0.860 | Waterford attack 0.786 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.019 / away 1.218. Waterford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 St Patrick's Athl. games / 23 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 57% | Draw 24% | Waterford 18%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Waterford 5.56. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: St Patrick's Athl. 30% | Waterford 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 13 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 57% | Draw 24% | Waterford 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 45% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.66 / Waterford 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.237 / def 0.860 | Waterford attack 0.786 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.019 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Waterford xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 13 August 2021 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
St Patrick's Athl. 2 - 1 Waterford.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 57% chance of winning, Waterford a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Waterford (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.24) and Waterford's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Waterford's attack (0.79x) against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
57%
1.75
24%
4.11
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.48
0.82
Waterford xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
4%
28.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.4 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.82 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 23 outings, St Patrick's Athl. have picked up 1.91 PPG on a 13W 5D 5L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for St Patrick's Athl. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waterford's form line: 8W 1D 14L from 23 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Waterford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, St Patrick's Athl. are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waterford.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 2.45 PPG from 11 outings (9W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.91 PPG overall — St Patrick's Athl. are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Waterford have gone 5W 0D 6L from 11 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 0.78 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St Patrick's Athl. have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Blended
Waterford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 13W 5D 5L in their last 23 games (1.91 PPG), while Waterford have gone 8W 1D 14L in their last 23 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Waterford away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 2.45 PPG; Waterford away: 1.36 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Waterford been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Waterford in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 10 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 on 20 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Waterford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
St Patrick's Athl.
4
Draws
1
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, Waterford have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2026, when Waterford 1-1 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
St Patrick's Athl. see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 36%, Waterford 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 73% (Waterford). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 9% and 9% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Waterford in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Waterford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 46% of Waterford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of St Patrick's Athl.'s matches and 73% of Waterford's.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Waterford in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out Waterford 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Waterford 2-1 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.66 xG and Waterford 0.82 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.24 / defence 0.86 against Waterford attack 0.79 / defence 1.32, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 57% | Draw 24% | Waterford 18%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 48%, Waterford 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Waterford's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.09. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.