St Patrick's Athl. 1-2 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shelbourne at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 16 as St Patrick's Athl. welcome Shelbourne to Richmond Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 20 May 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record at Richmond Park: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — St Patrick's Athl. are significantly better at Richmond Park than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 0.94 xG and Shelbourne 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.851 / defence 0.972 | Shelbourne attack 0.815 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.226. Data: 52 St Patrick's Athl. games / 15 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 33% | Draw 32% | Shelbourne 35%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Shelbourne 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shelbourne as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shelbourne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 20 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 33% | Draw 32% | Shelbourne 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 0.94 / Shelbourne 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.851 / def 0.972 | Shelbourne attack 0.815 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Shelbourne xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 20 May 2022 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
St Patrick's Athl. 1 - 2 Shelbourne.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 33% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. St Patrick's Athl. home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
St Patrick's Athl.'s attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Shelbourne's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. The same calculation in reverse, Shelbourne's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
33%
3.02
32%
3.09
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
1.92
0.97
Shelbourne xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
13%
7.99
13%
7.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 14.3 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.97 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Pre-Season
Shelbourne
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Shelbourne specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
St Patrick's Athl.
2
Draws
6
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 2, Shelbourne have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 0-1 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Shelbourne edge out St Patrick's Athl. 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat St Patrick's Athl. 1-2 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 0.94 xG and Shelbourne 0.97 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Shelbourne outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.85 / defence 0.97 against Shelbourne attack 0.81 / defence 0.88, drawn from 52/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 33% | Draw 32% | Shelbourne 35%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.