St Patrick's Athl. 1-0 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 37%, yet in-form Shamrock Rovers provide a compelling counter-argument — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. host Shamrock Rovers at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 4 March 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Richmond Park, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — St Patrick's Athl. are significantly better at Richmond Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Shamrock Rovers have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Shamrock Rovers have posted 6W 0D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shamrock Rovers are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Shamrock Rovers in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 56% versus Shamrock Rovers 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 50% | Shamrock Rovers 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.35 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.031 / defence 1.176 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.071 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.062. Data: 39 St Patrick's Athl. games / 39 Shamrock Rovers games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 37% | Draw 26% | Shamrock Rovers 37%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Shamrock Rovers 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 50% | Shamrock Rovers 40%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 4 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 37% | Draw 26% | Shamrock Rovers 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.35 / Shamrock Rovers 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.031 / def 1.176 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.071 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Shamrock Rovers xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 4 March 2022 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
St Patrick's Athl. 1 - 0 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 37% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.03) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shamrock Rovers's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
37%
2.69
26%
3.84
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.69
1.34
Shamrock Rovers xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
10%
10.25
10%
10.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 1.34 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, St Patrick's Athl. have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 18W 8D 10L record — W-D-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Shamrock Rovers's form line: 24W 6D 6L from 36 games, 2.17 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Shamrock Rovers are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against St Patrick's Athl..
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 2.11 PPG from 18 outings (12W 2D 4L).
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 12W 1D 5L from 18 away games — 2.06 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.64 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 18W 8D 10L in their last 36 games (1.72 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 24W 6D 6L in their last 36 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 2.11 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 2.06 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shamrock Rovers go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 May 2025, when Shamrock Rovers won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Shamrock Rovers specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St Patrick's Athl.
2
Draws
5
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Shamrock Rovers 1-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 44%, Shamrock Rovers 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 39% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Shamrock Rovers in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Shamrock Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 44% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 39% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out Shamrock Rovers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Shamrock Rovers 1-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.35 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.34 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shamrock Rovers landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.03 / defence 1.18 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.07 / defence 1.02, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 37% | Draw 26% | Shamrock Rovers 37%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 50%, Shamrock Rovers 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.72. Form was overturned, with St Patrick's Athl. winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.