St Patrick's Athl. 1-0 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Derry City travel to Richmond Park to take on St Patrick's Athl.. The game is scheduled for Friday 9 July 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.
St Patrick's Athl. at Richmond Park this season: 7W 0D 2L from 9 home games — 2.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — St Patrick's Athl. are significantly better at Richmond Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derry City stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Derry City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Derry City have gone 5W 1D 3L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.78 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: St Patrick's Athl. 1.40 PPG, Derry City 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 89% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Derry City trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — St Patrick's Athl. 63% and Derry City 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 47% | Derry City 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.47 xG and Derry City 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.265 / defence 0.960 | Derry City attack 0.844 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.050 / away 1.261. St Patrick's Athl. carry an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — their λ of 1.47 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 19 St Patrick's Athl. games / 19 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 47% | Draw 27% | Derry City 26%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Derry City 3.85. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 44% | Derry City 56%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 9 Jul 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 47% | Draw 27% | Derry City 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.47 / Derry City 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.265 / def 0.960 | Derry City attack 0.844 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.050 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Derry City xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 9 July 2021 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
St Patrick's Athl. 1 - 0 Derry City.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 47% chance of winning, Derry City a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Derry City (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.26) and Derry City's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Derry City's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
47%
2.13
27%
3.69
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.49
1.02
Derry City xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
6%
16.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 1.02 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St Patrick's Athl. come into this having played 19 games, going 10W 5D 4L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L. The sample for St Patrick's Athl. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Derry City sit at 1.32 PPG from 19 outings (6W 7D 6L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Derry City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St Patrick's Athl. carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Derry City — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
St Patrick's Athl.'s home form reads 7W 0D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.84 PPG overall — St Patrick's Athl. are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Derry City have taken 1.78 points per game from 9 outings (5W 1D 3L). That's actually stronger than their 1.32 PPG overall record — Derry City travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.11 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St Patrick's Athl. have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Derry City in 68%.
Last 19 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Blended
Derry City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 10W 5D 4L in their last 19 games (1.84 PPG), while Derry City have gone 6W 7D 6L in their last 19 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Derry City away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 2.33 PPG; Derry City away: 1.78 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Derry City in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Derry City specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
St Patrick's Athl.
3
Draws
5
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 2, Derry City have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Derry City 0-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 44%, Derry City 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 44% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 56% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 44% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Derry City in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out Derry City 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Derry City 1-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.47 xG and Derry City 1.02 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Derry City landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.26 / defence 0.96 against Derry City attack 0.84 / defence 1.10, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 47% | Draw 27% | Derry City 26%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 47%, Derry City 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Derry City's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was vindicated by the result. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Derry City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.