St Patrick's Athl. 4-1 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Derry City travel to Richmond Park to take on St Patrick's Athl.. The game is scheduled for Monday 5 June 2023, 18:45 UTC.
Form Guide
St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
St Patrick's Athl. at Richmond Park this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derry City stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier Division matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Derry City have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: St Patrick's Athl. 1.90 PPG, Derry City 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Derry City trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 51% versus Derry City 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 53% | Derry City 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.07 xG and Derry City 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.159 / defence 0.848 | Derry City attack 1.121 / defence 0.696. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.149. Derry City's defence strength of 0.696 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 55 St Patrick's Athl. games / 55 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 35% | Draw 29% | Derry City 36%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Derry City 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derry City are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derry City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 50% | Derry City 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Monday 5 Jun 2023, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 35% | Draw 29% | Derry City 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.07 / Derry City 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.159 / def 0.848 | Derry City attack 1.121 / def 0.696 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Derry City (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Derry City xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City kicked off at 18:45 on Monday 5 June 2023 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
St Patrick's Athl. 4 - 1 Derry City.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 35% chance of winning, Derry City a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Derry City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.16) and Derry City's defence rating (0.70), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Derry City's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
35%
2.87
29%
3.40
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.17
1.09
Derry City xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
12%
8.55
12%
8.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 1.09 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St Patrick's Athl. come into this having played 72 games, going 36W 15D 21L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Derry City sit at 1.67 PPG from 72 outings (32W 24D 16L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.71 PPG, Derry City on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
St Patrick's Athl.'s home form reads 22W 5D 9L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Derry City have taken 1.75 points per game from 36 outings (18W 9D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.42 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 36W 15D 21L in their last 72 games (1.71 PPG), while Derry City have gone 32W 24D 16L in their last 72 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Derry City away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.97 PPG; Derry City away: 1.75 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Derry City in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Derry City specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
St Patrick's Athl.
3
Draws
5
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 2, Derry City have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Derry City 0-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 44%, Derry City 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 44% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 56% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 44% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Derry City in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant St Patrick's Athl. run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Derry City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Derry City 4-1 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.07 xG and Derry City 1.09 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.16 / defence 0.85 against Derry City attack 1.12 / defence 0.70, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 35% | Draw 29% | Derry City 36%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual St Patrick's Athl. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 53%, Derry City 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.71 PPG, Derry City 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm. Derry City (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.