St Patrick's Athl. 4-0 Cork City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cork City make the trip to Richmond Park to face St Patrick's Athl. in Premier Division, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Friday 7 April 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
St Patrick's Athl. (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
St Patrick's Athl. at Richmond Park this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 2.10 xG and Cork City 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.090 / defence 0.830 | Cork City attack 1.145 / defence 1.446. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.207. Cork City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.446 — this is suppressing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 St Patrick's Athl. games / 7 Cork City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 59% | Draw 21% | Cork City 20%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Cork City 5.00. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 7 Apr 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 59% | Draw 21% | Cork City 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 60% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 2.10 / Cork City 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.090 / def 0.830 | Cork City attack 1.145 / def 1.446 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Cork City xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 7 April 2023 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City?
St Patrick's Athl. 4 - 0 Cork City.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 59% chance of winning, Cork City a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Cork City will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Cork City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Cork City in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. St Patrick's Athl. home split: 2.20 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates St Patrick's Athl.'s attack at 1.09x the league average against Cork City's defence at 1.45x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cork City's attack (1.15x) against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 43/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
59%
1.69
21%
4.75
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
3.24
1.15
Cork City xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
12%
8.15
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
2%
40.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Cork City expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 1.15 for Cork City, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Pre-Season
Cork City
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 22 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won 4-0 on 7 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cork City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
St Patrick's Athl.
2
Draws
0
Cork City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Cork City?
From 8 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 6, Cork City have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Cork City last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. 4-0 Cork City.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Cork City?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Cork City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant St Patrick's Athl. run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Cork City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Cork City 4-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 2.10 xG and Cork City 1.15 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cork City landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.09 / defence 0.83 against Cork City attack 1.15 / defence 1.45, drawn from 43/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 59% | Draw 21% | Cork City 20%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.