Shelbourne 4-4 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 26 as Shelbourne welcome St Patrick's Athl. to Tolka Park. Kick-off is set for Monday 3 October 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Shelbourne have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Shelbourne's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Tolka Park this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Shelbourne are significantly better at Tolka Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier Division matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour St Patrick's Athl. — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Shelbourne in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 43% versus St Patrick's Athl. 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 37% | St Patrick's Athl. 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 0.69 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.675 / defence 1.098 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.331 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 0.986. Shelbourne's attack strength of 0.675 is below the league average — the 0.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. St Patrick's Athl. have an above-average attack strength of 1.331 — the away xG of 1.44 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 30 Shelbourne games / 66 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 18% | Draw 27% | St Patrick's Athl. 55%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 5.56 | Draw 3.70 | St Patrick's Athl. 1.82. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shelbourne 40% | St Patrick's Athl. 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Monday 3 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 18% | Draw 27% | St Patrick's Athl. 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 38% | xG Shelbourne 0.69 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.675 / def 1.098 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.331 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.264 / away 0.986 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.44
St Patrick's Athl. xG
38%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 3 October 2022 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Shelbourne 4 - 4 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 18% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 55% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shelbourne's attack rating (0.68) and St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 0.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Shelbourne's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
18%
5.57
27%
3.71
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.3%
Away win
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.13
1.44
St Patrick's Athl. xG
5.57
18%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
4%
23.52
28%
3.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 17.1 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.44 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shelbourne's recent record stands at 9W 8D 13L from 30 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-D in the last five.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 15W 6D 9L across 30 games — 1.70 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours St Patrick's Athl. by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shelbourne heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Shelbourne have managed 4W 4D 6L from 14 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record stands at 7W 3D 4L across 14 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shelbourne are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.43 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 9W 8D 13L in their last 30 games (1.17 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 15W 6D 9L in their last 30 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.14 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shelbourne's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Shelbourne
2
Draws
2
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 6, St Patrick's Athl. have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 0-1 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl.?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
St Patrick's Athl. see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 43%, St Patrick's Athl. 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Shelbourne) and 50% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. in 36%; Shelbourne have failed to score in 43% of games; St Patrick's Athl. in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 43% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Shelbourne's recent games and 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. finished level at 4-4 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 0.69 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.44 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Shelbourne beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. St Patrick's Athl. outscored their 1.44 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.68 / defence 1.10 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.33 / defence 0.81, drawn from 30/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 18% | Draw 27% | St Patrick's Athl. 55%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 37%, St Patrick's Athl. 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shelbourne (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.