Shelbourne 0-1 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shelbourne at 46%, yet in-form St Patrick's Athl. provide a compelling counter-argument — this Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 16 as Shelbourne welcome St Patrick's Athl. to Tolka Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 19 May 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Shelbourne have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Shelbourne's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Tolka Park this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour St Patrick's Athl. — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Shelbourne in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 47% versus St Patrick's Athl. 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 42% | St Patrick's Athl. 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.55 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.869 / defence 0.743 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.263 / defence 1.358. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.232. St Patrick's Athl. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.358 — this is suppressing Shelbourne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. St Patrick's Athl. have an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — the away xG of 1.16 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Shelbourne's defence rating of 0.743 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Shelbourne games / 52 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 46% | Draw 25% | St Patrick's Athl. 28%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.57. Shelbourne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shelbourne as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form St Patrick's Athl. (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shelbourne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shelbourne 40% | St Patrick's Athl. 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 46% | Draw 25% | St Patrick's Athl. 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Shelbourne 1.55 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.869 / def 0.743 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.263 / def 1.358 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.16
St Patrick's Athl. xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 19 May 2023 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Shelbourne 0 - 1 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 46% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shelbourne's attack rating (0.87) and St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Shelbourne's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
46%
2.15
25%
3.97
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.71
1.16
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
6%
16.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.16 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shelbourne's recent record stands at 10W 11D 15L from 36 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 18W 7D 11L across 36 games — 1.69 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours St Patrick's Athl. by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shelbourne heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Shelbourne have managed 5W 6D 7L from 18 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record stands at 8W 4D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Shelbourne are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.58 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 10W 11D 15L in their last 36 games (1.14 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 18W 7D 11L in their last 36 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.17 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shelbourne's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Shelbourne
2
Draws
2
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 6, St Patrick's Athl. have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 0-1 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl.?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 44%, St Patrick's Athl. 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Shelbourne) and 56% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne have failed to score in 39% of games; St Patrick's Athl. in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Shelbourne's recent games and 56% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Shelbourne have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as St Patrick's Athl. defy the odds to beat Shelbourne 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Shelbourne 0-1 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.55 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.16 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shelbourne fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.87 / defence 0.74 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.26 / defence 1.36, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 46% | Draw 25% | St Patrick's Athl. 28%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual St Patrick's Athl. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 42%, St Patrick's Athl. 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points. Shelbourne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.