Shelbourne 0-2 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sligo Rovers at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers meet at Tolka Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Friday 9 September 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Shelbourne's overall Premier Division record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Shelbourne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shelbourne have posted 4W 2D 4L at Tolka Park — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Sligo Rovers have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Sligo Rovers away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sligo Rovers are 0.80 PPG clear of Shelbourne in recent Premier Division fixtures (1.70 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Shelbourne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Sligo Rovers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 44% versus Sligo Rovers 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 41% | Sligo Rovers 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.10 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.770 / defence 1.128 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.989 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 0.983. Shelbourne's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Shelbourne games / 64 Sligo Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 35% | Draw 30% | Sligo Rovers 35%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Sligo Rovers 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Shelbourne 50% | Sligo Rovers 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 9 Sep 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 35% | Draw 30% | Sligo Rovers 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Shelbourne 1.10 / Sligo Rovers 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.770 / def 1.128 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.989 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.330 / away 0.983 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Sligo Rovers xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 9 September 2022 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers?
Shelbourne 0 - 2 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 35% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Sligo Rovers (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Shelbourne's attack at 0.77x the league average against Sligo Rovers's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sligo Rovers's attack (0.99x) against Shelbourne's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 27/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
35%
2.84
30%
3.38
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.19
1.10
Sligo Rovers xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
12%
8.51
12%
8.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.10 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, Shelbourne have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 9W 6D 12L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Shelbourne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sligo Rovers's form line: 10W 8D 9L from 27 games, 1.41 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Sligo Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.41 for Sligo Rovers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Shelbourne have posted 1.25 PPG from 12 outings (4W 3D 5L).
On the road, Sligo Rovers have gone 2W 4D 6L from 12 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sligo Rovers's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shelbourne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shelbourne are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 1.37 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Blended
Sligo Rovers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 9W 6D 12L in their last 27 games (1.22 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 10W 8D 9L in their last 27 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Sligo Rovers away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.25 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shelbourne
3
Draws
2
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 5, Sligo Rovers have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Sligo Rovers 2-2 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Sligo Rovers?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Sligo Rovers see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 50%, Sligo Rovers 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Shelbourne) and 58% (Sligo Rovers).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers in 33%; Shelbourne have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play Sligo Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 58% of Sligo Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shelbourne vs Sligo Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Shelbourne's recent games and 58% of Sligo Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Sligo Rovers cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Shelbourne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat Shelbourne 0-2 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.10 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.10 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Shelbourne fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sligo Rovers outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.77 / defence 1.13 against Sligo Rovers attack 0.99 / defence 1.07, drawn from 27/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 35% | Draw 30% | Sligo Rovers 35%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Sligo Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 41%, Sligo Rovers 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (27 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (27 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.22 PPG, Sligo Rovers 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sligo Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Shelbourne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.