Shamrock Rovers 1-0 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 10 as Shamrock Rovers welcome St Patrick's Athl. to Tallaght Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 15 April 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Shamrock Rovers — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Shamrock Rovers at Tallaght Stadium this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
St Patrick's Athl.'s form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Shamrock Rovers have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Shamrock Rovers register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Shamrock Rovers in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 56% versus St Patrick's Athl. 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 44% | St Patrick's Athl. 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.35 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.339 / defence 0.836 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.037 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.198. Shamrock Rovers carry an above-average attack strength of 1.339 — their λ of 1.35 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 Shamrock Rovers games / 45 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 41% | Draw 32% | St Patrick's Athl. 26%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shamrock Rovers 60% | St Patrick's Athl. 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 Apr 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 41% | Draw 32% | St Patrick's Athl. 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.35 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.339 / def 0.836 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.037 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.120 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.04
St Patrick's Athl. xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 15 April 2022 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Shamrock Rovers 1 - 0 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 41% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shamrock Rovers's attack rating (1.34) and St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Shamrock Rovers's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
41%
2.41
32%
3.11
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.38
1.04
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
15%
6.82
7%
14.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 1.04 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shamrock Rovers come into this having played 36 games, going 24W 6D 6L for 2.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, St Patrick's Athl. sit at 1.72 PPG from 36 outings (18W 8D 10L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-D across their last five.
Shamrock Rovers carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of St Patrick's Athl. — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Shamrock Rovers's home form reads 12W 5D 1L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.28 PPG return.
Away from home, St Patrick's Athl. have taken 1.33 points per game from 18 outings (6W 6D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.56 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 24W 6D 6L in their last 36 games (2.17 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 18W 8D 10L in their last 36 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.28 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Shamrock Rovers have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 May 2025, when Shamrock Rovers won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shamrock Rovers's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shamrock Rovers
2
Draws
3
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Shamrock Rovers 1-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
St Patrick's Athl. see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Shamrock Rovers at 67%, St Patrick's Athl. at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shamrock Rovers) and 44% (St Patrick's Athl.).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play St Patrick's Athl.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Shamrock Rovers's games and 67% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shamrock Rovers's recent games and 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out St Patrick's Athl. 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat St Patrick's Athl. 1-0 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.35 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.04 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. St Patrick's Athl. landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.34 / defence 0.84 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.04 / defence 0.90, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 41% | Draw 32% | St Patrick's Athl. 26%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 44%, St Patrick's Athl. 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.72. That form edge translated into the three points. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.