Shamrock Rovers 2-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to Tallaght Stadium to face Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Friday 2 April 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.00 xG and Dundalk 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 0.969 / defence 1.150 | Dundalk attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.900 / away 1.025. Data: 1 Shamrock Rovers games / 2 Dundalk games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 35% | Draw 31% | Dundalk 35%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Dundalk 2.86. The draw (31%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 31% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 2 Apr 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 35% | Draw 31% | Dundalk 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.00 / Dundalk 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 0.969 / def 1.150 | Dundalk attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.900 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Draw (31%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Dundalk xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 2 April 2021 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Shamrock Rovers 2 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 35% chance of winning, Dundalk a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shamrock Rovers's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.85x) against Shamrock Rovers's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
The sample (1/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.3%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
35%
2.89
31%
3.24
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.00
1.00
Dundalk xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
13%
7.86
13%
7.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 1.00 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Pre-Season
Dundalk
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shamrock Rovers won 0-4 on 31 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shamrock Rovers have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shamrock Rovers
2
Draws
3
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, Dundalk have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Dundalk 1-0 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out Dundalk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Dundalk 2-1 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.00 xG and Dundalk 1.00 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Dundalk attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 35% | Draw 31% | Dundalk 35%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.