Shamrock Rovers 2-0 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to Tallaght Stadium to face Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Friday 2 June 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shamrock Rovers have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Tallaght Stadium, Shamrock Rovers have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tallaght Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Shamrock Rovers are significantly better at Tallaght Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Dundalk (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Dundalk away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Shamrock Rovers. A 0.90 PPG lead over Dundalk (2.30 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shamrock Rovers lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2023, ended 4–0 with Shamrock Rovers winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Shamrock Rovers — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Dundalk — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 49% versus Dundalk 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 44% | Dundalk 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.65 xG and Dundalk 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.327 / defence 1.156 | Dundalk attack 0.855 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.160. Shamrock Rovers carry an above-average attack strength of 1.327 — their λ of 1.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 54 Shamrock Rovers games / 54 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 49% | Draw 24% | Dundalk 27%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Dundalk 3.70. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: Shamrock Rovers 40% | Dundalk 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 2 Jun 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 49% | Draw 24% | Dundalk 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.65 / Dundalk 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.327 / def 1.156 | Dundalk attack 0.855 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Dundalk xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 2 June 2023 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Shamrock Rovers 2 - 0 Dundalk.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 49% chance of winning, Dundalk a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk?
Record (1 meetings): Shamrock Rovers 1W | Draws 0 | Dundalk 0W.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Dundalk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shamrock Rovers's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.85x) against Shamrock Rovers's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
49%
2.04
24%
4.09
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.79
1.15
Dundalk xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
5%
19.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.6 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 1.15 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shamrock Rovers come into this having played 72 games, going 48W 13D 11L for 2.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Dundalk sit at 1.54 PPG from 72 outings (30W 21D 21L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Shamrock Rovers carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Dundalk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Shamrock Rovers's home form reads 28W 7D 1L across 36 games on their own ground, a 2.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Dundalk have taken 1.14 points per game from 36 outings (9W 14D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dundalk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.31 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 48W 13D 11L in their last 72 games (2.18 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 30W 21D 21L in their last 72 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or Dundalk away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.53 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Dundalk in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shamrock Rovers won 0-4 on 31 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shamrock Rovers have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shamrock Rovers
2
Draws
3
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, Dundalk have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Dundalk 1-0 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shamrock Rovers 56%, Dundalk 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shamrock Rovers) and 36% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Dundalk in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play Dundalk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Shamrock Rovers's recent matches and 50% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shamrock Rovers's recent games and 36% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shamrock Rovers cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dundalk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Dundalk 2-0 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.65 xG and Dundalk 1.15 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dundalk landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.33 / defence 1.16 against Dundalk attack 0.85 / defence 0.92, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 49% | Draw 24% | Dundalk 27%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 44%, Dundalk 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dundalk's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.54. That form edge translated into the three points. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.