Shamrock Rovers 1-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians make the trip to Tallaght Stadium to face Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Monday 18 October 2021 at 19:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shamrock Rovers have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Tallaght Stadium, Shamrock Rovers have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bohemians (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Bohemians have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Shamrock Rovers's favour (2.40 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Shamrock Rovers have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bohemians in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Shamrock Rovers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 52% versus Bohemians 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 41% | Bohemians 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.72 xG and Bohemians 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.141 / defence 0.880 | Bohemians attack 1.023 / defence 1.329. League average goals — home 1.136 / away 1.152. Bohemians bring a strong defensive rating of 1.329 — this is suppressing Shamrock Rovers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Shamrock Rovers games / 29 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 53% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 23%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Bohemians 4.35. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shamrock Rovers 60% | Bohemians 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 18 Oct 2021, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 53% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.72 / Bohemians 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.141 / def 0.880 | Bohemians attack 1.023 / def 1.329 | league avg home 1.136 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Bohemians xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:15 on Monday 18 October 2021 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Shamrock Rovers 1 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 53% chance of winning, Bohemians a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Bohemians (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shamrock Rovers's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (1.02x) against Shamrock Rovers's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 30/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
53%
1.87
24%
4.20
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.76
1.04
Bohemians xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
4%
24.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.3 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 1.04 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 29 outings, Shamrock Rovers have picked up 2.21 PPG on a 20W 4D 5L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Bohemians's form line: 12W 6D 11L from 29 games, 1.45 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-D.
Put side by side, Shamrock Rovers are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Shamrock Rovers have posted 2.36 PPG from 14 outings (10W 3D 1L).
On the road, Bohemians have gone 5W 2D 7L from 14 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.72 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.69 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 20W 4D 5L in their last 29 games (2.21 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 12W 6D 11L in their last 29 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or Bohemians away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.36 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Bohemians in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Shamrock Rovers have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shamrock Rovers have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Shamrock Rovers
1
Draws
5
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 4, Bohemians have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Bohemians 1-2 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shamrock Rovers 64%, Bohemians 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shamrock Rovers) and 50% (Bohemians).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play Bohemians?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Shamrock Rovers's games and 57% of Bohemians's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shamrock Rovers's recent games and 50% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 25, as Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.72 xG and Bohemians 1.04 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.14 / defence 0.88 against Bohemians attack 1.02 / defence 1.33, drawn from 30/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 53% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 23%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 41%, Bohemians 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.45. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.