Finn Harps 1-2 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sligo Rovers at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Finn Harps vs Sligo Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 14 as Finn Harps welcome Sligo Rovers to Finn Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 28 May 2021 at 17:45 UTC.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Finn Harps, 1 for Sligo Rovers and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2021, ended 0–1 with Sligo Rovers winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 0.55 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 0.697 / defence 1.082 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.919 / defence 0.827. League average goals — home 0.948 / away 1.255. Finn Harps's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 0.55 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Finn Harps games / 13 Sligo Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Finn Harps 16% | Draw 31% | Sligo Rovers 53%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 6.25 | Draw 3.23 | Sligo Rovers 1.89. Sligo Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Finn Harps's lower xG of 0.55 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sligo Rovers at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sligo Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.79 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Finn Harps vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Finn Park • Kick-off: Friday 28 May 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Finn Harps 16% | Draw 31% | Sligo Rovers 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 30% | xG Finn Harps 0.55 / Sligo Rovers 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Finn Harps attack 0.697 / def 1.082 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.919 / def 0.827 | league avg home 0.948 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Sligo Rovers (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.55
Finn Harps xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Sligo Rovers xG
30%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Finn Harps vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Finn Harps vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 17:45 on Friday 28 May 2021 at Finn Park.
What was the final score in Finn Harps vs Sligo Rovers?
Finn Harps 1 - 2 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Finn Harps vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Finn Park.
What competition is Finn Harps vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Finn Harps vs Sligo Rovers is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Finn Harps vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Finn Harps a 16% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 53% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sligo Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Finn Harps and Sligo Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Finn Harps vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Sligo Rovers?
Record (1 meetings): Finn Harps 0W | Draws 0 | Sligo Rovers 1W.
What form are Finn Harps and Sligo Rovers in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Finn Harps's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Sligo Rovers's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.55. The same calculation in reverse, Sligo Rovers's attack versus Finn Harps's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 19.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (18.1%), 0-2 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
16%
6.26
31%
3.27
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
20.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
0 – 2
12.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.55
Finn Harps xG
Total xG
1.79
1.25
Sligo Rovers xG
6.26
16%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.30
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
58%
1.73
Win to Nil
5%
21.78
31%
3.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 20.8 | 12.9 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.3 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Finn Harps vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.3%.
How many goals are Finn Harps and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.55 expected goals for Finn Harps and 1.25 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Finn Harps vs Sligo Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Finn Harps
Pre-Season
Sligo Rovers
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Finn Harps and Sligo Rovers runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jun 2022, when Sligo Rovers won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Finn Harps's record when hosting Sligo Rovers specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Finn Harps
1
Draws
5
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Sligo Rovers?
From 8 meetings on record, Finn Harps have won 2, Sligo Rovers have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Finn Harps and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 19 August 2022, when Finn Harps 3-2 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Finn Harps and Sligo Rovers?
Sligo Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Finn Harps home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Sligo Rovers edge out Finn Harps 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat Finn Harps 1-2 at Finn Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Finn Harps 0.55 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.25 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Finn Harps attack 0.70 / defence 1.08 against Sligo Rovers attack 0.92 / defence 0.83, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Finn Harps 16% | Draw 31% | Sligo Rovers 53%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.