Finn Harps 2-1 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Shamrock Rovers travel to Finn Park to take on Finn Harps. The game is scheduled for Friday 3 September 2021, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Finn Harps stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Finn Harps, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Finn Harps at Finn Park this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Shamrock Rovers have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shamrock Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 8W 0D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Shamrock Rovers's 2.30 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Finn Harps's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Finn Harps, 1 for Shamrock Rovers and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jun 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Finn Harps in-play tendencies (23 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Shamrock Rovers in-play tendencies (23 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Finn Harps 56% versus Shamrock Rovers 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Finn Harps 48% | Shamrock Rovers 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 0.85 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 0.862 / defence 1.165 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.098 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.029 / away 1.210. Data: 24 Finn Harps games / 23 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Finn Harps 21% | Draw 26% | Shamrock Rovers 54%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 4.76 | Draw 3.85 | Shamrock Rovers 1.85. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Finn Harps 60% | Shamrock Rovers 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Finn Park • Kick-off: Friday 3 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Finn Harps 21% | Draw 26% | Shamrock Rovers 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Finn Harps 0.85 / Shamrock Rovers 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Finn Harps attack 0.862 / def 1.165 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.098 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.029 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Finn Harps xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Shamrock Rovers xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 3 September 2021 at Finn Park.
What was the final score in Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers?
Finn Harps 2 - 1 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Finn Park.
What competition is Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Finn Harps a 21% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 54% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers?
Record (2 meetings): Finn Harps 0W | Draws 1 | Shamrock Rovers 1W.
What form are Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers in?
Finn Harps (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Finn Harps's attack at 0.86x the league average against Shamrock Rovers's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shamrock Rovers's attack versus Finn Harps's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.5%), 0-2 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
21%
4.82
26%
3.90
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Finn Harps xG
Total xG
2.40
1.55
Shamrock Rovers xG
4.82
21%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
4%
22.68
23%
4.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 14.0 | 10.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Finn Harps and 1.55 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 23 outings, Finn Harps have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 7W 5D 11L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Finn Harps is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shamrock Rovers's form line: 15W 5D 3L from 23 games, 2.17 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Shamrock Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shamrock Rovers are the form team by 1.04 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Finn Harps.
Venue Form
On home soil, Finn Harps have posted 0.80 PPG from 10 outings (2W 2D 6L).
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 8W 0D 2L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Finn Harps are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.70 scored and 0.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shamrock Rovers in 61%.
Last 23 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Finn Harps
Blended
Shamrock Rovers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Finn Harps have gone 7W 5D 11L in their last 23 games (1.13 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 15W 5D 3L in their last 23 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Finn Harps at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Finn Harps at home: 0.80 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 2.40 PPG.
Have Finn Harps or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Finn Harps have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Shamrock Rovers have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2022, when Shamrock Rovers won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Finn Harps's record when hosting Shamrock Rovers specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Finn Harps
1
Draws
6
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers?
From 8 meetings on record, Finn Harps have won 1, Shamrock Rovers have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2022, when Shamrock Rovers 5-1 Finn Harps.
Who has won more matches between Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Finn Harps 60%, Shamrock Rovers 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Finn Harps) and 40% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers in 50%; Finn Harps have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Finn Harps home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Finn Harps play Shamrock Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Finn Harps's recent matches and 40% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Finn Harps's recent games and 40% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
Finn Harps have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Finn Harps defy the odds to beat Shamrock Rovers 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Finn Harps beat Shamrock Rovers 2-1 at Finn Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Finn Harps 0.85 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.55 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Finn Harps beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Finn Harps attack 0.86 / defence 1.17 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.10 / defence 0.96, drawn from 24/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Finn Harps 21% | Draw 26% | Shamrock Rovers 54%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Finn Harps win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Finn Harps 48%, Shamrock Rovers 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Finn Harps's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Finn Harps winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Finn Harps (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.