Finn Harps 1-2 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Finn Harps at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Finn Harps vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Bohemians travel to Finn Park to take on Finn Harps. The game is scheduled for Monday 13 September 2021, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Finn Harps have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Finn Harps, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Finn Harps's home record at Finn Park: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier Division appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Finn Park this season.
Bohemians — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Finn Harps 1.40 PPG, Bohemians 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Finn Harps have won 1, Bohemians 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2021, ended 0–4 with Bohemians winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Finn Harps trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Bohemians trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Finn Harps 56% versus Bohemians 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Finn Harps 52% | Bohemians 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 1.40 xG and Bohemians 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 0.925 / defence 1.156 | Bohemians attack 0.776 / defence 1.386. League average goals — home 1.091 / away 1.172. Bohemians bring a strong defensive rating of 1.386 — this is suppressing Finn Harps's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Finn Harps games / 23 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Finn Harps 45% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 28%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Bohemians 3.57. Finn Harps hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Finn Harps are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Finn Harps offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Finn Harps 60% | Bohemians 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Finn Harps vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Finn Park • Kick-off: Monday 13 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Finn Harps 45% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Finn Harps 1.40 / Bohemians 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Finn Harps attack 0.925 / def 1.156 | Bohemians attack 0.776 / def 1.386 | league avg home 1.091 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Finn Harps (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Finn Harps xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Bohemians xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Finn Harps vs Bohemians kick off?
Finn Harps vs Bohemians kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 13 September 2021 at Finn Park.
What was the final score in Finn Harps vs Bohemians?
Finn Harps 1 - 2 Bohemians.
Where is Finn Harps vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Finn Park.
What competition is Finn Harps vs Bohemians part of?
Finn Harps vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Finn Harps vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Finn Harps a 45% chance of winning, Bohemians a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Finn Harps the favourite.
Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Finn Harps and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Finn Harps vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Bohemians?
Record (2 meetings): Finn Harps 1W | Draws 0 | Bohemians 1W.
What form are Finn Harps and Bohemians in?
Finn Harps (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Bohemians (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Finn Harps's attack at 0.93x the league average against Bohemians's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians's attack versus Finn Harps's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Finn Harps Win
45%
2.23
27%
3.73
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Finn Harps xG
Total xG
2.45
1.05
Bohemians xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
7%
14.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.7 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Finn Harps vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Finn Harps and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Finn Harps and 1.05 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Finn Harps vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Finn Harps come into this having played 23 games, going 7W 5D 11L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Finn Harps is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bohemians sit at 1.48 PPG from 23 outings (10W 4D 9L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Bohemians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Finn Harps on 1.13 PPG, Bohemians on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Finn Harps's home form reads 3W 2D 6L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians have taken 1.00 points per game from 11 outings (3W 2D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bohemians's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Finn Harps are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.61 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Finn Harps
Blended
Bohemians
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Finn Harps and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Finn Harps have gone 7W 5D 11L in their last 23 games (1.13 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 10W 4D 9L in their last 23 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Finn Harps at home or Bohemians away?
Finn Harps's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Finn Harps at home: 1.00 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Finn Harps or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Finn Harps have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Bohemians in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 May 2021, when Bohemians won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Finn Harps's record when hosting Bohemians specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Finn Harps
3
Draws
3
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Bohemians?
From 8 meetings on record, Finn Harps have won 2, Bohemians have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Finn Harps and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 21 October 2022, when Bohemians 2-2 Finn Harps.
Who has won more matches between Finn Harps and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Finn Harps 64%, Bohemians 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Finn Harps) and 36% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Finn Harps have failed to score in 36% of games; Bohemians in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Finn Harps home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Finn Harps play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Finn Harps's recent matches and 46% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Finn Harps vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Finn Harps's recent games and 36% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Finn Harps and Bohemians tend to score early?
Finn Harps have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bohemians defy the odds to beat Finn Harps 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Finn Harps 1-2 at Finn Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Finn Harps 1.40 xG and Bohemians 1.05 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bohemians outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Finn Harps attack 0.93 / defence 1.16 against Bohemians attack 0.78 / defence 1.39, drawn from 26/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Finn Harps 45% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 28%, with Finn Harps to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Bohemians win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Finn Harps 52%, Bohemians 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Finn Harps's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Finn Harps 1.13 PPG, Bohemians 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.