Dundalk 1-1 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees St Patrick's Athl. travel to Oriel Park to take on Dundalk. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 April 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 0.67 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.867 / defence 1.239 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.805 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 0.747 / away 1.210. Data: 4 Dundalk games / 4 St Patrick's Athl. games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dundalk 20% | Draw 32% | St Patrick's Athl. 48%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 5.00 | Draw 3.12 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.08. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Dundalk's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St Patrick's Athl. at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (4 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 20% | Draw 32% | St Patrick's Athl. 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 35% | xG Dundalk 0.67 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.867 / def 1.239 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.805 / def 1.034 | league avg home 0.747 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.21
St Patrick's Athl. xG
35%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 17 April 2021 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Dundalk 1 - 1 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 20% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 48% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dundalk's attack at 0.87x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 0.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Dundalk's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (4/4 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.9%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
20%
5.07
32%
3.11
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Dundalk xG
Total xG
1.88
1.21
St Patrick's Athl. xG
5.07
20%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
51%
1.95
Win to Nil
6%
16.95
25%
4.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 18.5 | 11.1 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.21 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Pre-Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dundalk's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Dundalk
3
Draws
5
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 2, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 5, as Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 0.67 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.21 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 0.87 / defence 1.24 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.81 / defence 1.03, drawn from 4/4 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 20% | Draw 32% | St Patrick's Athl. 48%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.