Dundalk 4-1 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sligo Rovers at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Oriel Park plays host to Dundalk versus Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Friday 24 September 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dundalk at Oriel Park this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sligo Rovers's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Sligo Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sligo Rovers away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Dundalk, 1.30 for Sligo Rovers — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Dundalk — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Sligo Rovers — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 69% versus Sligo Rovers 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 50% | Sligo Rovers 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 0.79 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.839 / defence 1.342 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.633 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.097 / away 1.227. Data: 26 Dundalk games / 27 Sligo Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 27% | Draw 32% | Sligo Rovers 41%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | Sligo Rovers 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Dundalk's lower xG of 0.79 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sligo Rovers are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sligo Rovers if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.83 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates are neutral: Dundalk 80% | Sligo Rovers 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 27% | Draw 32% | Sligo Rovers 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 35% | xG Dundalk 0.79 / Sligo Rovers 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.839 / def 1.342 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.633 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.097 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Sligo Rovers (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Sligo Rovers xG
35%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 24 September 2021 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Dundalk 4 - 1 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 27% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sligo Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Dundalk and Sligo Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers in?
Dundalk (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Sligo Rovers (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dundalk's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Sligo Rovers's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.79. Flip it around — Sligo Rovers's attack (0.63x) against Dundalk's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 26/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
27%
3.68
32%
3.11
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Dundalk xG
Total xG
1.83
1.04
Sligo Rovers xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.82
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
10%
10.43
18%
5.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 16.6 | 8.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.04 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dundalk's recent record stands at 7W 7D 12L from 26 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Dundalk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sligo Rovers, meanwhile, have gone 13W 5D 8L across 26 games — 1.69 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Sligo Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sligo Rovers by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dundalk heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dundalk have managed 4W 2D 6L from 12 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sligo Rovers's away record stands at 6W 3D 3L across 12 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sligo Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 1.19 scored and 0.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sligo Rovers in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Blended
Sligo Rovers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 7W 7D 12L in their last 26 games (1.08 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 13W 5D 8L in their last 26 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Sligo Rovers away?
Sligo Rovers's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.17 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Sligo Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Sligo Rovers in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sligo Rovers won 0-5 on 4 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Dundalk
2
Draws
3
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 5, Sligo Rovers have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Dundalk 1-1 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Sligo Rovers see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 75%, Sligo Rovers 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Dundalk) and 17% (Sligo Rovers).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers in 42%; Sligo Rovers in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Sligo Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Dundalk's recent matches and 33% of Sligo Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Dundalk's recent games and 17% of Sligo Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Sligo Rovers tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Sligo Rovers in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dundalk run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Sligo Rovers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Sligo Rovers 4-1 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 0.79 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.04 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Dundalk beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 0.84 / defence 1.34 against Sligo Rovers attack 0.63 / defence 0.86, drawn from 26/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 27% | Draw 32% | Sligo Rovers 41%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Dundalk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 50%, Sligo Rovers 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sligo Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Dundalk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.