Dundalk 1-2 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Oriel Park plays host to Dundalk versus Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Friday 7 April 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Dundalk at Oriel Park this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Oriel Park. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Dundalk are significantly better at Oriel Park than their overall form suggests.
Sligo Rovers's overall Premier Division record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Sligo Rovers away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Dundalk, 1.70 for Sligo Rovers — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Dundalk — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Sligo Rovers — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 54% versus Sligo Rovers 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 47% | Sligo Rovers 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.68 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.190 / defence 1.152 | Sligo Rovers attack 1.045 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.207. Data: 43 Dundalk games / 43 Sligo Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 43% | Draw 24% | Sligo Rovers 33%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Sligo Rovers 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dundalk are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates are neutral: Dundalk 40% | Sligo Rovers 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 7 Apr 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 43% | Draw 24% | Sligo Rovers 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Dundalk 1.68 / Sligo Rovers 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.190 / def 1.152 | Sligo Rovers attack 1.045 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Sligo Rovers xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 7 April 2023 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Dundalk 1 - 2 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 43% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Dundalk and Sligo Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers in?
Dundalk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Sligo Rovers (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dundalk's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Sligo Rovers's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. Flip it around — Sligo Rovers's attack (1.04x) against Dundalk's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
43%
2.33
24%
4.17
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Dundalk xG
Total xG
3.13
1.45
Sligo Rovers xG
2.33
43%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
10%
9.93
6%
16.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.6 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.45 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dundalk's recent record stands at 30W 21D 21L from 72 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Sligo Rovers, meanwhile, have gone 30W 19D 23L across 72 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-D-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Dundalk against 1.51 for Sligo Rovers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dundalk have managed 21W 7D 8L from 36 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sligo Rovers's away record stands at 13W 9D 14L across 36 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 1.28 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 30W 21D 21L in their last 72 games (1.54 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 30W 19D 23L in their last 72 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Sligo Rovers away?
Dundalk's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.94 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Sligo Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sligo Rovers in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sligo Rovers won 0-5 on 4 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Dundalk
2
Draws
3
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 5, Sligo Rovers have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Dundalk 1-1 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 58%, Sligo Rovers 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Dundalk) and 44% (Sligo Rovers).
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Sligo Rovers in 33%; Sligo Rovers in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Sligo Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Dundalk's recent matches and 47% of Sligo Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Dundalk's recent games and 44% of Sligo Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Sligo Rovers tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Sligo Rovers in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sligo Rovers defy the odds to beat Dundalk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat Dundalk 1-2 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.68 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.45 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.19 / defence 1.15 against Sligo Rovers attack 1.04 / defence 1.06, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 43% | Draw 24% | Sligo Rovers 33%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Sligo Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 47%, Sligo Rovers 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.54 PPG, Sligo Rovers 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sligo Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. Dundalk (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.