Dundalk 1-0 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shamrock Rovers make the trip to Oriel Park to face Dundalk in Premier Division, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Friday 8 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Dundalk's home record at Oriel Park: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Dundalk are significantly better at Oriel Park than their overall form suggests.
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 9W 0D 1L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 2.70 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Shamrock Rovers's away record: 7W 0D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Shamrock Rovers are the stronger side — 1.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.70 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Dundalk — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Shamrock Rovers — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dundalk 71% and Shamrock Rovers 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 57% | Shamrock Rovers 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.06 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.108 / defence 1.284 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.974 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.113 / away 1.235. Data: 29 Dundalk games / 28 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 26% | Draw 25% | Shamrock Rovers 48%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Shamrock Rovers 2.08. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 80% | Shamrock Rovers 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 8 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 26% | Draw 25% | Shamrock Rovers 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Dundalk 1.06 / Shamrock Rovers 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.108 / def 1.284 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.974 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.113 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Shamrock Rovers xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 8 October 2021 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Dundalk 1 - 0 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 26% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers in?
Dundalk (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (1.11) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (0.97x) against Dundalk's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 29/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
26%
3.84
25%
3.93
48%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.61
1.54
Shamrock Rovers xG
3.84
26%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.06
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
21%
4.69
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
6%
17.99
17%
5.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.54 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dundalk's recent record stands at 9W 7D 12L from 28 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Shamrock Rovers, meanwhile, have gone 19W 5D 4L across 28 games — 2.21 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shamrock Rovers by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dundalk heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dundalk have managed 6W 2D 6L from 14 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shamrock Rovers's away record stands at 10W 1D 3L across 14 trips, a 2.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dundalk are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.64 scored and 0.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 9W 7D 12L in their last 28 games (1.21 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 19W 5D 4L in their last 28 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.43 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 2.21 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shamrock Rovers won 0-4 on 31 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Dundalk
2
Draws
5
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 3, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Dundalk 1-0 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 79%, Shamrock Rovers 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Dundalk) and 36% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Shamrock Rovers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Dundalk's games and 43% of Shamrock Rovers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Dundalk's recent games and 36% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dundalk defy the odds to beat Shamrock Rovers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Shamrock Rovers 1-0 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.06 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.54 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shamrock Rovers landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.11 / defence 1.28 against Shamrock Rovers attack 0.97 / defence 0.86, drawn from 29/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 26% | Draw 25% | Shamrock Rovers 48%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Dundalk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 57%, Shamrock Rovers 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Dundalk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dundalk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.