Dundalk 2-1 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shamrock Rovers make the trip to Oriel Park to face Dundalk in Premier Division, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Friday 21 May 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 0.64 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.869 / defence 1.058 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.035 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 0.844 / away 1.291. Data: 11 Dundalk games / 11 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 15% | Draw 31% | Shamrock Rovers 54%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 6.67 | Draw 3.23 | Shamrock Rovers 1.85. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 21 May 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 15% | Draw 31% | Shamrock Rovers 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 38% | xG Dundalk 0.64 / Shamrock Rovers 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.869 / def 1.058 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.035 / def 0.875 | league avg home 0.844 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.64
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Shamrock Rovers xG
38%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 21 May 2021 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Dundalk 2 - 1 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 15% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 54% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (0.87) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (1.03x) against Dundalk's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
15%
6.65
31%
3.22
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
0 – 2
12.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.64
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.05
1.41
Shamrock Rovers xG
6.65
15%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
53%
1.90
Win to Nil
4%
27.32
28%
3.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 18.1 | 12.8 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.64 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.41 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Pre-Season
Shamrock Rovers
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shamrock Rovers won 0-4 on 31 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Dundalk
2
Draws
5
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 3, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Dundalk 1-0 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Dundalk defy the odds to beat Shamrock Rovers 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Shamrock Rovers 2-1 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 0.64 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.41 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Dundalk beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 0.87 / defence 1.06 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.03 / defence 0.88, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 15% | Draw 31% | Shamrock Rovers 54%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Dundalk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.