Dundalk 2-0 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Dundalk at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs Drogheda United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dundalk and Drogheda United meet at Casey's Field in Premier Division, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Friday 30 September 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Dundalk's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Dundalk's home record at Casey's Field: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Casey's Field. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Dundalk are significantly better at Casey's Field than their overall form suggests.
Drogheda United (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Drogheda United have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Dundalk against 0.90 for Drogheda United. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Drogheda United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 53% versus Drogheda United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 46% | Drogheda United 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.80 xG and Drogheda United 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.133 / defence 0.742 | Drogheda United attack 0.844 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 0.981. Drogheda United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing Dundalk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Dundalk's defence rating of 0.742 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 66 Dundalk games / 66 Drogheda United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 66% | Draw 22% | Drogheda United 12%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 1.52 | Draw 4.55 | Drogheda United 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Dundalk (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Dundalk 50% | Drogheda United 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Casey's Field • Kick-off: Friday 30 Sep 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 66% | Draw 22% | Drogheda United 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 38% | xG Dundalk 1.80 / Drogheda United 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.133 / def 0.742 | Drogheda United attack 0.844 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.294 / away 0.981 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Drogheda United xG
38%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Drogheda United kick off?
Dundalk vs Drogheda United kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 30 September 2022 at Casey's Field.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Dundalk 2 - 0 Drogheda United.
Where is Dundalk vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at Casey's Field.
What competition is Dundalk vs Drogheda United part of?
Dundalk vs Drogheda United is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 66% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 12% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Dundalk and Drogheda United will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Drogheda United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dundalk and Drogheda United in?
Dundalk (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Drogheda United (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (1.13) and Drogheda United's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Drogheda United's attack (0.84x) against Dundalk's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.61.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
66%
1.51
22%
4.57
12%
8.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.42
0.61
Drogheda United xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
8.31
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
54%
1.85
16%
6.08
Win to Nil
36%
2.80
2%
50.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 9.9 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.5 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Dundalk and 0.61 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Drogheda United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 66 outings, Dundalk have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 26W 20D 20L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Drogheda United's form line: 19W 18D 29L from 66 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Dundalk against 1.14 for Drogheda United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dundalk have posted 1.97 PPG from 32 outings (19W 6D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.48 PPG overall — Dundalk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Drogheda United have gone 6W 9D 17L from 32 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Drogheda United are on 1.12 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Drogheda United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Drogheda United in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 26W 20D 20L in their last 66 games (1.48 PPG), while Drogheda United have gone 19W 18D 29L in their last 66 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Drogheda United away?
Dundalk's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.97 PPG; Drogheda United away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Drogheda United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Drogheda United in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 10 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Drogheda United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Dundalk
4
Draws
2
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Drogheda United?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 4, Drogheda United have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Drogheda United last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2026, when Dundalk 1-2 Drogheda United.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Drogheda United?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 56%, Drogheda United 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Dundalk) and 50% (Drogheda United).
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Drogheda United in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Drogheda United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Dundalk's recent matches and 53% of Drogheda United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dundalk vs Drogheda United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Dundalk's recent games and 50% of Drogheda United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Drogheda United tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Drogheda United in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dundalk cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Drogheda United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Drogheda United 2-0 at Casey's Field, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.80 xG and Drogheda United 0.61 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.13 / defence 0.74 against Drogheda United attack 0.84 / defence 1.23, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 66% | Draw 22% | Drogheda United 12%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 46%, Drogheda United 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Drogheda United's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.48 PPG, Drogheda United 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dundalk win broke the near-deadlock. Dundalk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Drogheda United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.