Dundalk 2-1 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Oriel Park plays host to Dundalk versus Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Friday 25 June 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 0.87 xG and Derry City 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.861 / defence 1.225 | Derry City attack 0.843 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 0.972 / away 1.334. Data: 17 Dundalk games / 17 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 24% | Draw 28% | Derry City 48%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Derry City 2.08. Derry City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Derry City as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 25 Jun 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 24% | Draw 28% | Derry City 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Dundalk 0.87 / Derry City 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.861 / def 1.225 | Derry City attack 0.843 / def 1.045 | league avg home 0.972 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Derry City (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Derry City xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Derry City kick off?
Dundalk vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 25 June 2021 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Derry City?
Dundalk 2 - 1 Derry City.
Where is Dundalk vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Derry City part of?
Dundalk vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 24% chance of winning, Derry City a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Dundalk and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dundalk and Derry City in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (0.86) and Derry City's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (0.84x) against Dundalk's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.9%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
24%
4.24
28%
3.56
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.25
1.38
Derry City xG
4.24
24%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
6%
16.81
20%
4.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 14.5 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.38 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Pre-Season
Derry City
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 3-0 on 15 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Dundalk
5
Draws
4
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 1, Derry City have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Dundalk 2-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Dundalk defy the odds to beat Derry City 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Derry City 2-1 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 0.87 xG and Derry City 1.38 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Dundalk beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 0.86 / defence 1.23 against Derry City attack 0.84 / defence 1.04, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 24% | Draw 28% | Derry City 48%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Dundalk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.