Dundalk 2-2 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dundalk and Bohemians meet at Oriel Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Friday 19 May 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Dundalk's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Dundalk's home record at Oriel Park: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Oriel Park. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Dundalk are significantly better at Oriel Park than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Bohemians have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 54% versus Bohemians 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 47% | Bohemians 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.25 xG and Bohemians 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.249 / defence 1.183 | Bohemians attack 0.924 / defence 0.758. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.232. Bohemians's defence strength of 0.758 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 Dundalk games / 51 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 34% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 39%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Bohemians 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Dundalk 40% | Bohemians 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 34% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Dundalk 1.25 / Bohemians 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.249 / def 1.183 | Bohemians attack 0.924 / def 0.758 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Bohemians xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Bohemians kick off?
Dundalk vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 19 May 2023 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Dundalk 2 - 2 Bohemians.
Where is Dundalk vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Bohemians part of?
Dundalk vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 34% chance of winning, Bohemians a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Dundalk and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dundalk and Bohemians in?
Dundalk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Bohemians (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (1.25) and Bohemians's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (0.92x) against Dundalk's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 52/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
34%
2.90
26%
3.79
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.59
1.35
Bohemians xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
9%
11.17
11%
8.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.1 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.35 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, Dundalk have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 30W 21D 21L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Bohemians's form line: 26W 20D 26L from 72 games, 1.36 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Dundalk against 1.36 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dundalk have posted 1.94 PPG from 36 outings (21W 7D 8L).
On the road, Bohemians have gone 10W 11D 15L from 36 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dundalk are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.46 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians in 64%.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 30W 21D 21L in their last 72 games (1.54 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 26W 20D 26L in their last 72 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Bohemians away?
Dundalk's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.94 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Bohemians in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Dundalk
3
Draws
4
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 3, Bohemians have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when Bohemians 1-2 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 58%, Bohemians 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Dundalk) and 42% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Bohemians?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Dundalk's games and 64% of Bohemians's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dundalk vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Dundalk's recent games and 42% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Bohemians tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dundalk and Bohemians share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 16, as Dundalk and Bohemians drew 2-2 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.25 xG and Bohemians 1.35 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.25 / defence 1.18 against Bohemians attack 0.92 / defence 0.76, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 34% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 39%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 47%, Bohemians 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.54 PPG, Bohemians 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dundalk (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.