Drogheda United 1-2 Waterford – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Drogheda United at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Drogheda United vs Waterford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 22 as Drogheda United welcome Waterford to Head in the Game Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 30 July 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Drogheda United have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Drogheda United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Drogheda United's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Head in the Game Park this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Waterford — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Waterford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waterford away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Drogheda United at 1.40 PPG versus Waterford's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Drogheda United in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Waterford in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 62% versus Waterford 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 48% | Waterford 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.55 xG and Waterford 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 1.096 / defence 1.107 | Waterford attack 0.717 / defence 1.365. League average goals — home 1.038 / away 1.211. Waterford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.365 — this is suppressing Drogheda United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Drogheda United games / 21 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 51% | Draw 26% | Waterford 23%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Waterford 4.35. Drogheda United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Drogheda United are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Drogheda United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Drogheda United 70% | Waterford 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Head in the Game Park • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jul 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 51% | Draw 26% | Waterford 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Drogheda United 1.55 / Waterford 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 1.096 / def 1.107 | Waterford attack 0.717 / def 1.365 | league avg home 1.038 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Drogheda United (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Waterford xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Drogheda United vs Waterford kick off?
Drogheda United vs Waterford kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 30 July 2021 at Head in the Game Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs Waterford?
Drogheda United 1 - 2 Waterford.
Where is Drogheda United vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Head in the Game Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs Waterford part of?
Drogheda United vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 51% chance of winning, Waterford a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Drogheda United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Drogheda United and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Drogheda United vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Waterford?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Drogheda United and Waterford in?
Drogheda United (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Waterford (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Drogheda United's attack rating (1.10) and Waterford's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Drogheda United's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Drogheda United Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.92
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
2.51
0.96
Waterford xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
5%
20.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.1 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Drogheda United and 0.96 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 21 outings, Drogheda United have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 8W 6D 7L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Drogheda United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waterford's form line: 6W 1D 14L from 21 games, 0.90 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Waterford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Drogheda United are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waterford.
Venue Form
On home soil, Drogheda United have posted 1.50 PPG from 10 outings (4W 3D 3L).
On the road, Waterford have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Drogheda United are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 0.71 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Drogheda United have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Blended
Waterford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Drogheda United and Waterford in coming into this match?
Drogheda United have gone 8W 6D 7L in their last 21 games (1.43 PPG), while Waterford have gone 6W 1D 14L in their last 21 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Drogheda United at home or Waterford away?
Drogheda United's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Drogheda United at home: 1.50 PPG; Waterford away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Drogheda United's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Drogheda United
4
Draws
3
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, Drogheda United have won 3, Waterford have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Drogheda United 3-3 Waterford.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Drogheda United 70%, Waterford 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Drogheda United) and 70% (Waterford). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waterford in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Drogheda United play Waterford?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Drogheda United's games and 40% of Waterford's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Drogheda United vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Drogheda United's matches and 70% of Waterford's.
Do Drogheda United and Waterford tend to score early?
Drogheda United have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Waterford in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Waterford defy the odds to beat Drogheda United 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford beat Drogheda United 1-2 at Head in the Game Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.55 xG and Waterford 0.96 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Waterford outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 1.10 / defence 1.11 against Waterford attack 0.72 / defence 1.36, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 51% | Draw 26% | Waterford 23%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Waterford win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 48%, Waterford 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Drogheda United's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Waterford's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Drogheda United arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.90. Form was overturned, with Waterford winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Drogheda United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waterford (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.