Drogheda United 1-3 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Drogheda United at 52%, yet in-form St Patrick's Athl. provide a compelling counter-argument — this Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees St Patrick's Athl. travel to Weavers Park to take on Drogheda United. The game is scheduled for Monday 10 April 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Drogheda United have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Drogheda United's home record at Weavers Park: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Drogheda United are significantly better at Weavers Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. St Patrick's Athl.'s 1.90 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Drogheda United's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Drogheda United in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 49% versus St Patrick's Athl. 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 40% | St Patrick's Athl. 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.56 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 0.887 / defence 0.853 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.970 / defence 1.391. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.139. St Patrick's Athl. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.391 — this is suppressing Drogheda United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Drogheda United games / 44 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 52% | Draw 25% | St Patrick's Athl. 23%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | St Patrick's Athl. 4.35. Drogheda United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Drogheda United as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form St Patrick's Athl. (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Drogheda United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Drogheda United 40% | St Patrick's Athl. 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Weavers Park • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 52% | Draw 25% | St Patrick's Athl. 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Drogheda United 1.56 / St Patrick's Athl. 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 0.887 / def 0.853 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.970 / def 1.391 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Drogheda United (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
0.94
St Patrick's Athl. xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 10 April 2023 at Weavers Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Drogheda United 1 - 3 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Weavers Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 52% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Drogheda United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Drogheda United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Drogheda United's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against St Patrick's Athl.'s defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Drogheda United's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Drogheda United Win
52%
1.93
25%
3.93
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
2.50
0.94
St Patrick's Athl. xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
5%
20.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.0 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Drogheda United and 0.94 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 72 outings, Drogheda United have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 21W 19D 32L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
St Patrick's Athl.'s form line: 36W 15D 21L from 72 games, 1.71 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
Put side by side, St Patrick's Athl. are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Drogheda United.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Drogheda United have posted 1.44 PPG from 36 outings (14W 10D 12L).
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 14W 10D 12L from 36 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Drogheda United are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.57 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Drogheda United have gone 21W 19D 32L in their last 72 games (1.14 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 36W 15D 21L in their last 72 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Drogheda United at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Drogheda United's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Drogheda United at home: 1.44 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Drogheda United or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Drogheda United have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 12 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
St Patrick's Athl. have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Sep 2024, when St Patrick's Athl. won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Drogheda United's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Drogheda United
4
Draws
6
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Drogheda United have won 0, St Patrick's Athl. have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 12 June 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 Drogheda United.
Who has won more matches between Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Drogheda United see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
St Patrick's Athl. see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Drogheda United 47%, St Patrick's Athl. 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Drogheda United) and 50% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Drogheda United have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Drogheda United play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Drogheda United's recent matches and 58% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Drogheda United's recent games and 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
St Patrick's Athl. cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Drogheda United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Drogheda United 1-3 at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.56 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.94 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 0.89 / defence 0.85 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.97 / defence 1.39, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 52% | Draw 25% | St Patrick's Athl. 23%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a St Patrick's Athl. win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 40%, St Patrick's Athl. 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Drogheda United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.