Drogheda United 1-0 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dundalk at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Drogheda United vs Dundalk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Drogheda United and Dundalk meet at Head in the Game Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 18 March 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Drogheda United (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Drogheda United have posted 4W 1D 5L at Head in the Game Park — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dundalk have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Dundalk have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Dundalk arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Drogheda United — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Dundalk — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 50% versus Dundalk 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 44% | Dundalk 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.15 xG and Dundalk 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 1.006 / defence 1.417 | Dundalk attack 0.967 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 0.974. Data: 41 Drogheda United games / 42 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 29% | Draw 33% | Dundalk 38%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Dundalk 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dundalk are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Drogheda United 30% | Dundalk 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Head in the Game Park • Kick-off: Friday 18 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 29% | Draw 33% | Dundalk 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 54% | xG Drogheda United 1.15 / Dundalk 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 1.006 / def 1.417 | Dundalk attack 0.967 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.222 / away 0.974 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Dundalk xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Drogheda United vs Dundalk kick off?
Drogheda United vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 18 March 2022 at Head in the Game Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Drogheda United 1 - 0 Dundalk.
Where is Drogheda United vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Head in the Game Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs Dundalk part of?
Drogheda United vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 29% chance of winning, Dundalk a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Drogheda United and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Drogheda United vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Dundalk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Drogheda United and Dundalk in?
Drogheda United (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Dundalk (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Drogheda United's attack at 1.01x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.97x) against Drogheda United's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
29%
3.46
33%
3.00
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
2.48
1.33
Dundalk xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
8%
13.14
12%
8.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.1 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Drogheda United and 1.33 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Drogheda United's recent record stands at 12W 8D 16L from 36 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Dundalk, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 14L across 36 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Drogheda United against 1.33 for Dundalk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Drogheda United have managed 7W 4D 7L from 18 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dundalk's away record stands at 4W 7D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Drogheda United are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.22 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk in 64%.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Drogheda United and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Drogheda United have gone 12W 8D 16L in their last 36 games (1.22 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 13W 9D 14L in their last 36 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Drogheda United at home or Dundalk away?
Drogheda United's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Drogheda United at home: 1.39 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 10 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Drogheda United have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Drogheda United
4
Draws
4
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Drogheda United have won 2, Dundalk have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2026, when Dundalk 1-2 Drogheda United.
Who has won more matches between Drogheda United and Dundalk?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Drogheda United see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Drogheda United 50%, Dundalk 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Drogheda United) and 39% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Drogheda United have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Drogheda United play Dundalk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Drogheda United's games and 61% of Dundalk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Drogheda United vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Drogheda United's recent games and 39% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Drogheda United and Dundalk tend to score early?
Drogheda United have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Drogheda United defy the odds to beat Dundalk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Drogheda United beat Dundalk 1-0 at Head in the Game Park, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.15 xG and Dundalk 1.33 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dundalk landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 1.01 / defence 1.42 against Dundalk attack 0.97 / defence 0.94, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 29% | Draw 33% | Dundalk 38%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Drogheda United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 44%, Dundalk 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Drogheda United's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Drogheda United 1.22 PPG, Dundalk 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Drogheda United win broke the near-deadlock. Drogheda United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.