Drogheda United 1-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Drogheda United take on Bohemians.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians make the trip to Head in the Game Park to face Drogheda United in Premier Division, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Monday 3 May 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 0.74 xG and Bohemians 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 0.926 / defence 0.994 | Bohemians attack 0.711 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 0.716 / away 1.187. Data: 8 Drogheda United games / 8 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 29% | Draw 36% | Bohemians 35%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 3.45 | Draw 2.78 | Bohemians 2.86. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.58. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.58 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Drogheda United's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.58 combined xG gives a 21% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Head in the Game Park • Kick-off: Monday 3 May 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 29% | Draw 36% | Bohemians 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 30% | xG Drogheda United 0.74 / Bohemians 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 0.926 / def 0.994 | Bohemians attack 0.711 / def 1.116 | league avg home 0.716 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Bohemians xG
30%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Drogheda United vs Bohemians kick off?
Drogheda United vs Bohemians kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 3 May 2021 at Head in the Game Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Drogheda United 1 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is Drogheda United vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Head in the Game Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs Bohemians part of?
Drogheda United vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 29% chance of winning, Bohemians a 35% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Drogheda United and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Drogheda United vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Drogheda United and Bohemians in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Drogheda United's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.74. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (0.71x) against Drogheda United's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 22.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.40
36%
2.81
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.3%
Away win
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
1.58
0.84
Bohemians xG
3.40
29%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.37
70%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
13%
7.88
17%
5.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.6 | 17.3 | 7.3 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.8 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.3%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Drogheda United and 0.84 for Bohemians, a combined total of 1.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Pre-Season
Bohemians
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bohemians have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 1-4 on 1 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Drogheda United have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Drogheda United
2
Draws
4
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Drogheda United have won 4, Bohemians have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Drogheda United 0-2 Bohemians.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Drogheda United and Bohemians share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Head in the Game Park, Regular Season - 9, as Drogheda United and Bohemians drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 0.74 xG and Bohemians 0.84 xG, a combined 1.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 0.93 / defence 0.99 against Bohemians attack 0.71 / defence 1.12, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 29% | Draw 36% | Bohemians 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 47% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.